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Trends In Developing Country Trade 1980–2010

Working paper by Constantine Michalopoulos, Francis Ng, 2013

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The paper reviews trends and patterns in developing countries' trade from 1980 to 2010. During the 30-year span, world trade expanded rapidly, especially in developing countries in the last decade and a similar picture emerges in trade services. However, these overall trends mask different trade patterns during some of the time periods and among different developing countries. In addition, they raise questions about sustainability, trade policy and the architecture of the trading system.

Policy Research Working Paper 6334


Trends In Developing Country Trade
1980–2010


Constantine Michalopoulos
Francis Ng


The World Bank
Development Research Group
Trade and Integration Team
January 2013


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Produced by the Research Support Team


Abstract


The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development
issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the
names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those
of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and
its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.


Policy Research Working Paper 6334


This paper reviews trends and patterns in developing
countries’ trade from 1980 to 2010. During the 30-
year span, world trade expanded rapidly, especially
in developing countries in the last decade. A similar
picture emerges in trade in services. These overall trends,
however, mask different trade patterns during some
of the time periods and among different developing
countries and groups. For example, except for Asia,
the 1980s were pretty much a “lost” decade for many
developing countries and groups. But that changed in


This paper is a product of the Trade and Integration Team, Development Research Group. It is part of a larger effort by
the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around
the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The author may be
contacted at fng@worldbank.org.


the 1990s and 2000s, with trade by all major developing
countries growing faster than developed countries. From
1980 to 2000, trade by Least Developed Countries grew
much more slowly than that of developing countries
as a whole. But those countries saw the fastest growth
in trade in the following decade. This strong overall
trade performance—with some exceptions (for example
Sub-Sahara Africa in the manufacturing trade)—raises
questions about sustainability, trade policy and the
architecture of the trading system.















TRENDS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRY TRADE
1980-2010






Constantine Michalopoulos and Francis Ng












Keywords: Trade trends and patterns, world trade, trade performance and growth,
trade in developing countries and least developed countries (LDCs), market access

JEL Classification: F01, F10, F13, F15, F43

Sector Board: PREM



Constantine Michalopoulos is a former director at the World Bank and at present a visiting
scholar at the School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University.
Email: c.michalopoulos@comcast.net.


Francis Ng is a senior economist of Trade Team (DECTI) of Development Research Group
in the World Bank. Email: fng@worldbank.org.


The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and
do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank and its affiliated organizations.




2




TRENDS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRY TRADE, 1980-2010




INTRODUCTION


The purpose of this paper is to review broad trends in developing countries’


trade for the last thirty years. The study is part of a more detailed analysis of the


factors affecting developing-country trade performance during this period, which


considers developments in their own trade policies as well as market access issues


for their exports.


The period covered by this study, 1980–2010, witnessed a rapid expansion of


world trade, and an even more rapid expansion of developing countries' trade,


especially in the last decade.1 The share of developing-country trade in total world


merchandise trade (exports plus imports) was appreciably higher at the end of the


period than at the beginning, 31 percent as opposed to 39 percent (Tables 1 and 2).


There was a sharp decline in world trade in 2009. But this was offset by an even


larger increase in 2010. Trade growth has decelerated in 2011-2012, and there are


many uncertainties about 2013, but this does not affect these broad overall trends.


A similar picture emerges, if one also considers trade in services. While the


data on services are much less complete than for merchandise trade, there is little


doubt about the overall trends: services trade grew even faster than merchandise


trade; and there was a rise in the share of developing countries’ exports.




3


As a consequence of these trends, the role developing countries play in the


international trading system has changed radically; and this has been reflected in


their participation in the moribund Doha Development Round negotiations.


GDP growth during this period was much less than the growth in trade for


developed and developing countries alike. Using the ratio of total trade to GDP as an


indicator of integration into world trade, on average developing countries were more


integrated at the end of 2010 than twenty years earlier. This was the result of another


long term trend in evidence over the past fifty years and an important dimension of


the globalization process.


These overall trends however, disguise very different patterns during some of


the sub-periods and among different developing countries and groups. Broadly


speaking, the data show that, except for Asia, the 1980s were pretty much a ‘lost’


decade for many different developing countries and groups. By comparison, during


the 1990s and 2000s trade for practically all major groupings of developing


countries grew faster than trade of developed countries and, in many cases, very


rapidly indeed. The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) deserve special mention:


while growth in their merchandise trade was much slower than that of developing


countries as a whole for the first twenty years (1980-2000), it was the most rapid


during the decade 2001-2010. As a result, for the first time in many decades these


countries showed an increase in their small share of total world trade.











4


Table 1: World Merchandise Exports and Shares by Income Group and Region


1980 1990 2000 2010


Country Group
Exports


($ bill)
Share


in %
Exports


($ bill)
Share


in %
Exports


($ bill)
Share


in %
Exports


($ bill)
Share


in %


BY INCOME LEVEL












Developed economies 1,314 66.6 2,653 76.4 4,418 68.4 8,909 58.5














Developing economies 597 30.2 837 24.1 2,035 31.5 6,268 41.2
High income developing economies 254 12.9 363 10.5 854 13.2 2,108 13.8
Upper middle income economies 211 10.7 332 9.5 873 13.5 3,175 20.8
Lower middle income economies 120 6.1 128 3.7 285 4.4 908 6.0
Low income economies 12 0.6 14 0.4 23 0.4 77 0.5
Of which: Least developed countries 15 0.8 18 0.5 36 0.6 162 1.1


Memo:












Developing econ, excl. China & India 570 28.9 757 21.8 1,744 27.0 4,471 29.4
Upper middle income, excl. China 193 9.8 269 7.8 624 9.7 1,597 10.5
Lower middle income, excl. India 112 5.7 110 3.2 243 3.8 689 4.5


BY REGION












World 1,973 100.0 3,473 100.0 6,456 100.0 15,228 100.0














Developing economies 597 30.2 837 24.1 2,035 31.5 6,268 41.2
Asia 165 8.3 459 13.2 1,285 19.9 4,005 26.3
Latin America & Caribbean 104 5.3 145 4.2 362 5.6 886 5.8
Europe, Middle East & North Africa 250 12.7 165 4.8 293 4.5 1,035 6.8
Sub-Saharan Africa 78 3.9 68 2.0 94 1.5 341 2.2


Memo:












BRICS 5 countries 72 3.7 203 5.8 482 7.5 2481 16.3
OPEC 12 members 280 14.2 174 5.0 311 4.8 1,077 7.1


Source: Based on UN COMTRADE database.
















5


Table 2: World Merchandise Imports and Shares by Income Group and Region


1980 1990 2000 2010


Country Group
Imports
($ bill)


Share
in %


Imports
($ bill)


Share
in %


Imports
($ bill)


Share
in %


Imports
($ bill)


Share
in %


BY INCOME LEVEL












Developed economies 1,465 72.9 2,775 78.2 4,792 72.0 9,508 62.0














Developing economies 485 24.2 784 22.1 1,863 28.0 5,764 37.6
High income developing economies 153 7.6 327 9.2 749 11.3 1,726 11.3
Upper middle income economies 202 10.1 298 8.4 808 12.1 2,859 18.7
Lower middle income economies 112 5.6 136 3.8 269 4.0 1,051 6.9
Low income economies 18 0.9 23 0.6 37 0.6 129 0.8
Of which: Least developed countries 25 1.2 26 0.7 43 0.6 170 1.1


Memo:












Developing econ, excl. China & India 451 22.4 707 19.9 1,586 23.8 4,019 26.2
Upper middle income, excl. China 182 9.1 245 6.9 582 8.7 1,464 9.6
Lower middle income, excl. India 97 4.8 113 3.2 217 3.3 700 4.6


BY REGION












World 2,009 100.0 3,550 100.0 6,659 100.0 15,326 100.0














Developing economies 485 24.2 784 22.1 1,863 28.0 5,764 37.6
Asia 181 9.0 476 13.4 1,216 18.3 3,873 25.3
Latin America & Caribbean 116 5.8 123 3.5 384 5.8 891 5.8
Europe, Middle East & North Africa 122 6.1 127 3.6 181 2.7 693 4.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 66 3.3 58 1.6 82 1.2 307 2.0


Memo:












BRICS 5 countries 79 3.9 168 4.7 410 6.2 2,280 14.9


OPEC 12 members 122 6.1 100 2.8 148 2.2 595 3.9


Source: Based on UN COMTRADE database.





6


TRENDS IN MERCHANDISE TRADE


Developing country merchandise exports grew at an annual rate of 8.2 percent


for the period 1980-2010 compared with 6.6 percent for developed countries (Table


3). But the performance was very different in the 1980s compared to the 1990s and


2000s. In the 1980s, developing-country exports grew only at 3.4 percent while


exports of developed countries expanded at over 7 percent per annum. This reflects


in large part the slower growth of the world economy during this period as well as


the debt problems encountered by many groups of developing countries especially in


Latin America and Africa.


In the last two decades the situation was reversed with developing-country


export growth at more than 10 percent per annum compared with about 6 percent for


the developed countries. The trends in merchandise imports parallel those in exports


both for developed and developing countries alike. But in both periods, the


developing countries’ imports grew faster than their exports (Table 3).


China’s exceptional trade performance throughout the period, and India’s in


the last two decades, are well known. What is not always understood is that other


groups of developing countries’ trade also grew very rapidly during the past twenty


years, especially since 2000. Indeed, since the beginning of the 21st century, growth


in the trade of all major developing country groupings whether classified by income


level or by region was faster than that of developed countries. For the thirty years


1980-2010, only the developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and the group of


developing countries in Europe, Middle and North Africa—whose exports are


dominated by oil, experienced trade growth slower than that of developed countries.




7


Table 3 also shows the performance of different regions of developing


countries. In practically all cases and periods, Asia as a region has shown the


greatest growth with Latin America second. But Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe,


Middle East and North Africa grew fastest in the last decade.




Table 3: Growth in World Merchandise Exports and Imports by Income Group and Region


Annual Export Growth (in %) Annual Import Growth (in %)


Country Group 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 1980-10 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 1980-10


BY INCOME LEVEL






Developed economies 7.3 5.2 7.3 6.6 6.6 5.6 7.1 6.4








Developing economies 3.4 9.3 11.9 8.2 4.9 9.0 12.0 8.6
High income developing economies 3.7 8.9 9.5 7.3 7.9 8.7 8.7 8.4
Upper middle income economies 4.6 10.2 13.8 9.5 4.0 10.5 13.5 9.2
Lower middle income economies 0.7 8.3 12.3 7.0 2.0 7.0 14.6 7.7
Low income economies 1.2 5.2 12.8 6.3 2.1 5.0 13.3 6.7
Of which: Least developed countries 1.9 7.1 16.2 8.2 0.4 5.3 14.6 6.6








Memo:






Developing econ, excl. China & India 2.9 8.7 9.9 7.1 4.6 8.4 9.7 7.6
Upper middle income, excl. China 3.4 8.8 9.9 7.3 3.0 9.1 9.7 7.2


Lower middle income, excl. India -0.1 8.2 11.0 6.3 1.5 6.8 12.4 6.8


BY REGION






World 5.8 6.4 9.0 7.0 5.9 6.5 8.7 7.0








Developing economies 3.4 9.3 11.9 8.2 4.9 9.0 12.0 8.6
Asia 10.8 10.8 12.0 11.2 10.2 9.8 12.3 10.8
Latin America & Caribbean 3.3 9.6 9.4 7.4 0.6 12.0 8.8 7.0
Europe, Middle East & North Africa -4.1 5.9 13.4 4.8 0.4 3.6 14.4 6.0
Sub-Saharan Africa -1.3 3.3 13.7 5.1 -1.4 3.6 14.2 5.2








Memo:






BRICS 5 countries 10.8 9.1 17.8 12.5 7.8 9.3 18.7 11.8
OPEC 12 members -4.6 5.9 13.2 4.6 -2.0 3.9 15.0 5.4


Source: Based on UN COMTRADE database.




8


In the 1980s and 1990s, with the exception of China, trade grew fastest for the


higher and middle income developing countries and more slowly for the lower


income countries and the LDCs. This relationship however, did not hold up in the


2000s when LDC exports expanded very rapidly, indeed more rapidly than any other


group, except for the upper middle income economies whose performance is


dominated by China.


As noted in many studies, the trade performance of the various groups of


developing countries depends very much on the composition of their exports as


between manufactures and primary commodities and foodstuffs and the direction of


their trade. Overall, growth of developing countries’ manufacturing exports and


imports has exceeded that of developed countries for practically all groupings of


developing countries for last two decades and for the period as a whole (Table 4).


The same holds true for non-manufacturing trade—except that in this case LDC


exports of raw materials and minerals lagged those of developed countries in the


1990s. In the 2000s however, increased demand and rising prices of raw materials


led to very rapid (14.6 percent per annum) increase of LDC non-manufacturing


trade.

















9


Table 4: Growth in Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Trade by Income Group and Region


Annual Growth in Manuf. Trade (%) Annual Growth in Non-Manuf. Trade (%)


Country Group 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 1980-10 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 1980-10


BY INCOME LEVEL






Developed economies 9.1 5.7 6.2 7.0 3.3 4.2 10.0 5.8








Developing economies 11.0 11.5 11.1 11.2 1.7 7.3 13.8 7.5
High income developing economies 14.9 9.6 8.1 10.8 0.6 7.3 13.0 6.9
Upper middle income economies 7.8 14.6 13.2 11.8 1.6 7.1 14.5 7.6
Lower middle income economies 8.7 9.8 12.7 10.4 3.5 7.9 13.5 8.2
Low income economies 5.8 7.0 12.4 8.4 2.5 4.3 14.1 6.8
Of which: Least developed countries 5.7 8.0 12.8 8.8 6.1 2.6 14.6 7.7
Memo:








Developing econ, excl. China & India 11.1 10.9 8.5 10.1 1.5 6.9 12.3 6.8
Upper middle income, excl. China 6.7 13.8 8.1 9.5 1.5 6.3 12.1 6.5


Lower middle income, excl. India 8.4 10.1 10.9 9.8 3.4 7.8 11.2 7.4


BY REGION






World 9.7 7.1 7.8 8.2 2.7 6.0 11.2 6.6








Developing economies 11.0 11.5 11.1 11.2 1.7 7.3 13.8 7.5
Asia 15.5 11.4 11.5 12.8 5.1 7.2 15.8 9.3
Latin America & Caribbean 3.7 16.6 7.6 9.2 2.4 7.0 11.9 7.0
Europe, Middle East & North Africa 3.3 6.0 15.1 8.0 -3.5 9.4 12.1 5.8
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.2 4.3 13.0 7.4 3.0 2.7 12.3 5.9
Memo:








BRICS 5 countries 11.6 10.9 18.3 13.6 8.3 3.9 18.7 10.1
OPEC 12 members 1.8 5.7 15.9 7.7 -2.8 8.9 11.5 5.7


Note: The classification of manufacturing products in exports and imports is defined as SITC 5+6+7+8-68 in revision 3.


Source: Based on UN COMTRADE Statistics.







10


Within manufacturing, developing country export growth was especially rapid in


machinery and transport as well as chemicals. Practically all developing country groups shared


in this growth (Table 5) but it was especially rapid in the upper middle income countries—even


excluding China, as well as the BRICS and Latin America.


Table 5: Growth in Sectoral Exports by Income Group and Region during 1980-2010
Annual Average Growth Rate in Exports (%)





Of which in Total Manufacturing
Agric. & Ores &



All Chemical Textiles & Machinery Other


Country Group Feed Metals Fuels Manuf. Products Clothing & Transport Manuf.
BY INCOME GROUP








Developed economies 5.1 6.3 8.1 6.5 8.0 4.2 6.5 6.1
Developing economies 7.9 10.1 6.6 14.6 15.8 10.3 17.2 13.2
High income Developing economies 6.4 11.5 4.9 12.1 15.5 5.5 14.7 10.6
Upper Middle income economies 8.8 11.3 9.6 18.5 16.7 15.5 21.7 16.3
Lower Middle income economies 7.1 7.9 8.3 13.5 14.4 10.7 16.8 12.9
Low income economies 5.6 4.8 6.6 9.5 9.1 6.5 9.6 11.2
Of which: Least Developed countries 5.7 7.4 7.9 9.0 10.0 6.5 11.2 9.3
Memo:








Developing econ, excl. China & India 7.5 9.7 6.4 12.8 14.8 7.4 15.5 11.2
Upper middle income, excl. China 8.1 10.8 9.3 14.1 14.1 8.6 17.5 11.8
Lower middle income, excl. India 6.9 6.8 7.7 14.6 13.5 11.5 19.0 13.3

BY REGION








World 5.9 7.4 7.2 8.1 8.8 6.7 8.3 7.5
Developing economies 7.9 10.1 6.6 14.6 15.8 10.3 17.2 13.2
Asia 7.5 9.2 8.3 14.7 16.9 10.6 17.2 13.6
Latin America & Caribbean 9.7 12.6 11.5 16.6 14.8 9.4 20.6 14.5
Europe, Middle East & North Africa 8.9 7.9 5.2 14.1 15.3 8.1 13.9 16.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.8 8.7 10.0 8.0 8.1 5.2 11.7 6.7
Memo:








BRICS 5 countries 12.1 14.0 21.6 19.2 18.5 16.6 24.8 16.7
OPEC 12 members 10.4 14.3 5.7 16.9 21.1 16.9 14.8 16.6
Notes: The classification of product groups is defined in SITC revision 2 as agriculture & feed (0+1+2+4-27-28), ores & metals (27+28+68)


fuels (3), all manufactures (5+6+7+8-68), chemical products (5), textiles & clothing (26+65+84), machinery & transport (7), and
other manufactures (6+8-65-68-84).


Export data in sectoral breakdown is based on 161 countries data available in 2010 from COMTRADE database. Where the aggregate
merchandise export data is based on total 192 countries data available in Table 3 from World Development Indicators database.


Source: Based on UN COMTRADE Statistics.




11


Growth of manufactured exports in the developing world was in part prompted


by the development of value chains which took advantage of labor cost differentials.


Developing countries benefited from large investments by both multinationals and


local entrepreneurs in assembly or production of final consumer goods based on the


importation of intermediates. It is difficult to estimate how much of this happened in


different parts of the developing world. One proxy for intermediates is given by an


indicator consisting of 75 parts and component products at the SITC-2 to 5-digit


level.2 The results of this analysis are shown in Table 6.


In 1980 the share of parts and components in total manufacturing imports was


only slightly higher in developed countries than in developing. In the next two


decades this share grew in both groups of countries—but much faster in developing


countries than in developed. The aggregate share of parts and components in total


imports fell in the both developed and developing countries in the decade 2001 -


2010. At the end of 2010 the shares were higher the higher the developing country


income grouping.


But not all groups of developing countries followed this pattern over time: for


example, low income economies and the least developed did not see an increase in


the share of parts and components until the decade of the 1990s. Sub-Saharan


Africa, Europe, Middle East and North Africa (EMENA) as well as the LDCs


actually had lower ratios of parts and components in their imports at the end of the


thirty years than at the beginning. By contrast, the BRICS raised their share


drastically –more than doubling in the decade of the 1980s and maintained their


growth, almost uninterrupted until 2010. These findings suggest an obvious


imbalance in the importance of the value chains in different developing countries:




12


lower income developing economies, Sub-Saharan Africa and the LDCs appear to


have benefited much less than middle and higher income countries.




Table 6: Growth and Share of Parts & Component Products in Manufacturing Imports by Income Group and Region





Share of Parts & Comp in
Manuf. Imports (%)


Annual Growth in Parts & Comp
Imports (%)


Annual Growth in Manuf.
Imports (%)


Country Group 1980 1990 2000 2010
1980-


90
1990-


00
2000-


10
1980-


10
1980-


90
1990-


00
2000-


10
1980-


10


BY INCOME LEVEL









Developed economies 22.1 23.1 27.4 24.1 10.6 7.9 4.9 7.8 10.1 6.0 6.3 7.4











Developing economies 22.9 29.5 38.7 35.6 11.3 13.5 9.9 11.6 8.5 10.5 10.8 10.0
High income developing econ. 27.9 31.0 40.4 39.8 13.3 12.3 7.9 11.1 12.0 9.4 8.0 9.8
Upper middle income economies 20.3 30.2 39.0 35.9 10.2 16.0 11.2 12.4 6.0 13.1 12.1 10.3
Lower middle income economies 19.2 23.6 32.3 26.3 8.9 10.5 12.3 10.6 6.7 7.1 14.6 9.4
Low income economies 25.8 23.9 27.6 23.8 5.7 7.1 10.6 7.8 6.5 5.6 12.2 8.1
Of which: Least developed co. 25.4 24.1 27.7 23.8 6.2 7.6 11.0 8.3 6.8 6.2 12.7 8.5
Memo:











Developing econ, excl China & India 24.8 28.9 38.7 34.7 10.2 13.4 7.8 10.4 8.5 10.1 9.0 9.2
Upper middle income, excl. China 23.7 27.7 38.2 31.7 6.9 16.1 6.7 9.8 5.2 12.4 8.7 8.8
Lower middle income, excl. India 20.1 24.0 34.6 28.1 8.2 11.3 10.5 10.0 6.4 7.3 12.8 8.8


BY REGION









World 22.6 24.3 30.5 28.4 11.0 9.7 7.0 9.3 10.3 7.3 7.8 8.4











Developing economies 22.9 29.5 38.7 35.6 11.3 13.5 9.9 11.6 8.5 10.5 10.8 10.0
Asia 22.9 32.4 42.7 40.7 17.7 13.6 10.3 13.8 13.6 10.5 10.8 11.6
Latin America & Caribbean 21.9 20.5 33.2 29.6 1.8 21.8 7.1 9.9 2.5 16.1 8.4 8.8
Europe, Middle East & North Africa 24.3 26.9 27.1 20.6 2.4 5.9 11.5 6.5 1.3 5.8 14.5 7.1
Sub-Saharan Africa 21.8 22.9 22.9 20.9 6.4 2.3 13.4 7.3 5.9 2.3 14.4 7.4
Memo:











BRICS 5 countries 13.3 28.2 35.6 34.3 18.8 12.3 17.5 16.1 10.2 9.6 17.9 12.5


OPEC 12 members 23.0 25.8 24.8 20.0 1.5 5.0 12.8 6.3 0.3 5.4 15.2 6.8


Note: The classification of parts and components items is based on 75 products at SITC 2 to 5-digit level in revision 2, including textiles &
clothing (65+61), machinery & transport equipment (7), metal manufacturing (69), other misc. manufactured goods (8), and


manufacturing products are defined as SITC 5+6+7+8-68 in revision 2.

Source: Based on UN COMTRADE Statistics.




13




A significant portion of the growth in developing countries’ exports of


manufactures as well as of commodities is the result of expanding trade among the


developing countries themselves. China’s growth has been instrumental in this but


trade among developing countries has grown rapidly in other regions as well. Part of


this growth may be the result of preferential regional arrangements, but part can be


explained by the fact that during most of the 1990s and 2000s growth in incomes in


most developing country groupings outpaced that of developed countries. Table 7


shows that South-South trade grew faster than any other trade over the last 30 years.


Indeed the share of this trade in the total world quadrupled over this period.




Table 7: World Market Shares and Trade Growth in Developed and Developing Markets (North-North v.s.
South-South Trade)


World Trade Market Share (in %) Annual Trade Growth (in %)


Reporter Partner 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 1980-10


Developed econ (48) Developed econ (48) 55.8 61.4 53.7 42.9 8.2 5.4 6.4 6.7
Developed econ (48) Developing economies 27.2 18.5 18.5 19.6 3.1 6.9 9.4 6.4
Developed econ (48) World 82.9 79.9 72.2 62.5 6.8 5.8 7.2 6.6

Developing econ (ROW) Developed econ (48) 11.4 11.8 15.5 15.8 7.6 9.7 9.0 8.8
Developing econ (ROW) Developing economies 5.6 8.2 12.3 21.7 11.3 11.2 15.2 12.5
Developing econ (ROW) World 17.1 20.1 27.8 37.5 8.9 10.4 12.1 10.5

World Developed econ (48) 67.2 73.3 69.2 58.7 8.1 6.2 7.0 7.1
World Developing economies 32.8 26.7 30.8 41.3 5.0 8.4 12.0 8.4
World World 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 7.2 6.8 8.8 7.6


Source: Based on UN COMTRADE Statistics.





14


The improvement in the export performance of developing countries during


the 1990s was due mainly to increased demand in the commodities they exported


and to a much lesser extent to diversification or increases in the market shares of


their traditional exports. While this is true for the developing countries as a whole,


different regions had different experiences: both Asia and Latin America improved


their competitive position. By contrast Sub-Saharan Africa experienced slow growth


in world trade for its export basket, reflecting the continued decline in primary


commodity prices and slow demand growth for these commodities. The same was


true for the least developed (World Bank, 2000).


In the decade of the 2000s, the trends of the 1990s continued in many ways—


except, of course, for the increase in African exports of raw materials, a relatively


rapid growth of Latin America exports of foodstuffs and an expansion of exports of


fuels from developed countries and the BRICS (See Appendix Tables B-1 and B-2).


During this period practically developing income groups and regions improved their


competitiveness with respect to developed countries overall and in most sectors


(Hanson, 2011).


The overall weak export performance of the LDCs, in the 1980s and 1990s


was largely due to their dependence upon a small range of primary commodities


(usually two or three), for the bulk of their export earnings. On average the top three


LDC export commodities account for over 70 percent of the each country’s exports,


and with the exception of Bangladesh, few countries have any significant exports of


manufactures. On average, manufactures, mainly textiles and clothing, constituted


about 20 percent of total LDC exports in the 1990s (WTO, 1997). Although these


exports grew substantially over this period, it was not possible to overcome the weak




15


performance of primary commodities which accounted for the bulk of LDC


merchandise exports.


The situation changed drastically in the 2000s: both the volume and the prices


of their primary commodity exports rose very rapidly and, while their manufacturing


exports also increased, the share of primary commodities in their total exports rose


from 58% in 2000 to 75% in 2011 while clothing fell from 18% in 2000 to 11% in


2011. China was the main force in this growth and Sub-Saharan LDCs the main


beneficiaries: China’s share of LDC exports rose from 9% in 2000 to 22% in 2011,


while the share of developed countries decreased by almost the exact same


percentage (Ancharaz, 2012).




TRADE IN SERVICES


Data on trade in services are far weaker than data on merchandise trade.


Indeed many countries do not report data on certain service categories (Goswami,


Mattoo and Saez, 2012; Mattoo, 2005; Whichard, 1999), and data are simply not


available for a number of countries for certain periods.3 Nonetheless, it is clear that


growth of world trade in services in the thirty years 1980-2010 was faster than that


for goods. Developing country service exports grew faster than those of developed


countries for the period as a whole (9.7 percent compared to 7.7 percent) and for the


last twenty years; their growth was only marginally lower in the 1980s. The same


trends hold true for service imports except that the differences are less pronounced


(see Tables 8-10).







16





Table 8: World Commercial Service Exports and Shares by Income Group and Region



1980 1990 2000 2010


Country Group
Exports


($ bill)
Share
(in %)


Exports
($ bill)


Share
(in %)


Exports
($ bill)


Share
(in %)


Exports
($ bill)


Share
(in %)


BY INCOME LEVEL












Developed economies 290 75.0 669 80.6 1,182 77.1 2,650 70.0














Developing economies 63 16.2 141 17.0 303 19.7 1,000 26.4
High income developing economies 23 5.9 63 7.6 118 7.7 360 9.5
Upper middle income economies 25 6.5 48 5.8 126 8.2 390 10.3
Lower middle income economies 13 3.2 27 3.2 54 3.5 234 6.2
Low income economies 2 0.5 3 0.4 5 0.4 16 0.4
Of which: Least developed countries 2 0.5 3 0.4 6 0.4 17 0.4
Memo:














Developing econ, excl. China & India 57 14.9 131 15.8 256 16.7 707 18.7
Upper middle income, excl. China 23 5.9 42 5.1 96 6.2 220 5.8
Lower middle income, excl. India 10 2.5 22 2.7 37 2.4 111 2.9
BY REGION














World 387 100.0 830 100.0 1,535 100.0 3,784 100.0














Developing economies 63 16.2 141 17.0 303 19.7 1,000 26.4
Asia 26 6.6 87 10.5 196 12.8 742 19.6
Latin America & Caribbean 16 4.3 28 3.4 56 3.6 115 3.0
Europe, Middle East & North Africa 13 3.4 16 2.0 36 2.3 105 2.8
Sub-Saharan Africa 8 1.9 10 1.2 15 1.0 38 1.0
Memo:














BRICS 5 countries 9 2.4 26 3.1 70 4.5 382 10.1
OPEC 12 members 10 2.5 8 0.9 15 1.0 30 0.8

Source: Based on World Bank World Development Indicator database.





17












Table 9: World Commercial Service Imports and Shares by Income Group and Region



1980 1990 2000 2010


Country Group
Imports
($ bill)


Share
(in %)


Imports
($ bill)


Share
(in %)


Imports
($ bill)


Share
(in %)


Imports
($ bill)


Share
(in %)


BY INCOME LEVEL












Developed economies 275 66.6 661 78.7 1,102 74.2 2,263 65.5














Developing economies 106 25.6 163 19.4 352 23.7 1,098 31.8
High income developing economies 29 6.9 62 7.4 111 7.5 325 9.4
Upper middle income economies 47 11.4 60 7.2 152 10.3 478 13.8
Lower middle income economies 26 6.2 35 4.2 80 5.4 271 7.8
Low income economies 5 1.1 6 0.7 9 0.6 23 0.7
Of which: Least developed countries 6 1.4 8 1.0 12 0.8 44 1.3
Memo:














Developing econ, excl. China & India 101 24.4 153 18.2 297 20.0 789 22.8
Upper middle income, excl. China 45 10.9 56 6.7 117 7.8 286 8.3
Lower middle income, excl. India 23 5.5 29 3.5 61 4.1 155 4.5


BY REGION












World 413 100.0 839 100.0 1,486 100.0 3,456 100.0














Developing economies 106 25.6 163 19.4 352 23.7 1,098 31.8
Asia 27 6.5 80 9.5 209 14.1 705 20.4
Latin America & Caribbean 28 6.7 34 4.0 69 4.7 156 4.5
Europe, Middle East & North Africa 33 7.9 31 3.6 48 3.2 147 4.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 18 4.4 19 2.2 25 1.7 89 2.6
Memo:














BRICS 5 countries 12 3.0 36 4.3 92 6.2 458 13.2
OPEC 12 members 38 9.1 28 3.3 38 2.6 137 4.0


Source: Based on World Bank World Development Indicator database.



















18















Table 10: Growth in World Commercial Service Exports and Imports by Income Group and Region


Annual Export Growth (in %) Annual Import Growth (in %)


Country Group 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 1980-10 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 1980-10


BY INCOME LEVEL






Developed economies 8.7 5.9 8.4 7.7 9.2 5.3 7.5 7.3








Developing economies 8.4 7.9 12.7 9.7 4.4 8.0 12.0 8.1
High income developing economies 10.7 6.4 11.8 9.6 8.0 6.1 11.3 8.4
Upper middle income economies 6.6 10.1 12.0 9.5 2.5 9.8 12.1 8.0
Lower middle income economies 7.9 7.2 15.9 10.3 3.2 8.5 13.0 8.2
Low income economies 4.8 5.8 11.0 7.2 2.6 3.9 10.7 5.6
Of which: Least developed countries 3.6 6.5 11.4 7.1 3.2 4.3 13.7 7.0
Memo:








Developing econ, excl. China & India 8.6 7.0 10.7 8.7 4.2 6.9 10.3 7.1
Upper middle income, excl. China 6.3 8.5 8.7 7.8 2.2 7.6 9.4 6.4
Lower middle income, excl. India 8.6 5.5 11.5 8.5 2.6 7.6 9.8 6.6


BY REGION






World 7.9 6.3 9.4 7.9 7.3 5.9 8.8 7.3








Developing economies 8.4 7.9 12.7 9.7 4.4 8.0 12.0 8.1
Asia 13.0 8.4 14.2 11.9 11.4 10.1 12.9 11.5
Latin America & Caribbean 5.4 7.1 7.6 6.7 2.0 7.5 8.5 5.9
Europe, Middle East & North Africa 2.2 8.2 11.3 7.2 -0.6 4.6 11.9 5.2
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.5 4.7 9.7 5.6 0.2 3.0 13.5 5.4
Memo:








BRICS 5 countries 10.5 10.4 18.6 13.1 11.1 9.9 17.4 12.8
OPEC 12 members -2.4 6.7 7.3 3.8 -3.1 3.3 13.6 4.4


Source: Based on World Bank World Development Indicator database.




19


The regional growth patterns in services trade were similar to those in goods.


The Asian developing countries’ trade grew the fastest, and Sub-Saharan Africa’s


the slowest with Latin America and the Europe, Middle East and North Africa the


Mediterranean, in between (Table 10). Growth over the period as a whole was


associated with the per capita income levels of the various developing country


groups, especially if you take India out of the lower middle income group (Table


10).


Different developing countries have been successful in exporting different


kinds of services: India is well known for its exports of software and business


services. In Latin America, Brazil, Costa Rica, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay are


among successful cases of exporters of information technology, communication and


distribution services. Kenya and South Africa are among Sub-Saharan Africa


countries exporting professional services to Europe; and a range of different


countries in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East and North Africa are exporters


of health services (Goswami, Mattoo and Saez, 2012).


Table 11 shows the growth rates of service exports by main sector for different


developing country groupings. The growth in financial and insurance services in the


1990s for countries in Asia and the BRICS during the last decade is especially


noteworthy. Similarly there was very large growth in the export of information


technology exports in the period 2000-2010 in practically all developing country


groups except for Sub-Saharan Africa.







Table 11: Growth in Sectoral Exports of Commercial Services by Income Group and Region






Annual % Growth Rate in Service Exports (%)


Transport Service Exports Travel Service Exports Insurance & Financial Service Exp Info, Tech & Other Service Exports


Country Group
1980-


90
1990-


00
2000-


10
1980-


10
1980-


90
1990-


00
2000-


10
1980-


10
1980-


90
1990-


00
2000-


10
1980-


10
1980-


90
1990-


00
2000-


10
1980-


10


BY INCOME LEVEL













Developed economies 4.1 5.2 7.2 5.5 10.5 5.9 4.9 7.1 18.6 10.5 11.4 13.4 7.5 8.9 10.6 9.0
















Developing economies 4.7 10.1 11.8 8.8 8.1 9.1 11.3 9.5 1.4 19.8 15.2 11.9 5.1 12.5 16.3 11.2


High income Developing 3.9 19.6 10.4 11.1 8.4 7.9 14.8 10.3 2.4 49.6 15.5 20.9 1.4 14.5 13.5 9.6


Upper Middle income 5.8 5.0 12.5 7.7 8.3 9.5 9.9 9.2 1.0 10.2 11.2 7.3 4.9 14.9 16.8 12.1


Lower Middle income 3.7 3.6 15.1 7.4 7.2 9.9 10.9 9.3 2.5 11.8 23.2 12.2 11.5 7.6 20.0 12.9


Low income 1.4 3.4 12.5 5.7 6.7 6.6 10.8 8.1 9.1 2.5 18.1 9.7 5.4 5.2 9.5 6.7


Of which: Least developed co. 1.6 3.2 10.8 5.1 6.0 9.6 12.5 9.4 9.3 10.8 4.1 8.0 4.7 6.0 5.2 5.3


Memo:













Developing econ, excl. China & India 4.3 10.8 10.0 8.3 8.5 7.7 11.2 9.1 1.1 21.2 13.5 11.6 4.5 10.9 12.6 9.3


Upper middle income, excl. China 5.4 5.3 7.6 6.1 8.2 6.9 9.5 8.2 1.0 11.3 8.7 6.9 4.0 12.3 11.1 9.1


Lower middle income, excl. India 3.1 2.8 12.8 6.2 10.0 10.2 9.9 10.0 -0.1 9.5 10.2 6.4 12.2 2.2 12.5 8.9




BY REGION













World 5.0 4.8 8.3 6.0 10.6 5.1 7.1 7.6 12.6 9.4 12.0 11.3 7.7 8.3 11.3 9.1
















Developing economies 4.7 10.1 11.8 8.8 8.1 9.1 11.3 9.5 1.4 19.8 15.2 11.9 5.1 12.5 16.3 11.2


Asia 8.0 14.8 12.4 11.7 13.0 11.1 12.3 12.1 3.1 33.5 16.9 17.2 8.7 14.6 17.5 13.5


Latin America & Caribbean 4.7 3.8 8.3 5.6 7.3 6.8 5.8 6.6 0.3 12.2 5.9 6.0 3.4 11.1 10.7 8.3


Europe, Middle East, & N. Africa 2.6 3.9 12.3 6.2 0.7 9.6 16.1 8.6 8.4 12.4 29.0 16.3 -4.3 3.6 17.6 5.2


Sub-Saharan Africa -1.9 2.6 10.1 3.5 4.6 4.6 11.7 6.9 1.2 3.2 8.8 4.3 7.3 5.9 2.8 5.3


Memo:













BRICS-5 6.1 7.5 19.3 10.8 5.6 15.5 11.7 10.9 2.6 9.2 23.2 11.4 8.6 20.7 22.4 17.1


OPEC-12 -4.5 4.0 11.9 3.6 -8.5 5.3 20.2 5.0 -8.6 11.4 19.2 6.7 -8.8 3.1 12.6 1.9


Source: Based on World Bank World Development Indicator database.




The picture regarding service imports is very similar to that of service exports


with only one interesting difference: LDC service imports for the period as a whole


as well as for all sub-periods tended to grow much faster than for non-LDC low


income economies. This is probably due to very rapid expansion of service imports


by Bangladesh.


The overall conclusion that emerges from these findings, are that the patterns


of growth both for exports and imports of merchandise trade and commercial


services have been very similar for different developing country groupings whether


by region or by income level. There is particularly striking similarity in their growth


performance in the 2000s which far outpaces that of developed countries during this


period.




INTEGRATION IN WORLD TRADE


A key indicator of a country’s integration into world trade is the ratio of the


total trade in both goods and services (exports plus imports) to GDP. Essentially it


shows how much of a country’s economy is directly affected by international trade.


This indicator is especially useful in determining the links between a country’s


economy and international trade over time, but it has to be used with caution when


making comparisons between countries. This is because large countries tend to have


smaller ratios of trade to GDP than small economies. Also, the existence of large


enclave type export sectors in some developing countries may give the false


impression that the economy is well integrated into the world trading system, while


in practice the bulk of economic activity may be subsistence domestic production.




22


Tables 12 and 13 show the evolution of this indicator of integration in


developing countries, grouped by income level and over time for the period 1980-


2010. After stagnating during the 1980s (and declining for some groups), the


trade/GDP ratio recovered, rose rapidly and was substantially higher for all


developing country income groupings by the end of the 1990s and increased further


in the last decade. Since 2000 the ratio is higher for all developing country groups


than for developed countries.


One study (Frankel and Romer, 1999) using earlier data estimated that the


ratio of trade to GDP is strongly and positively related to growth in incomes: an


increase in the ratio by one percent can raise the level of income by anywhere


between 0.5 and 2 percent. It is unclear whether the experience of the last decade


would support this finding, as a number of very large countries with relatively low


ratios of trade to GDP grew very rapidly—as did some small and poor countries.


Interestingly, with the exception of the high income developing countries, the


data show an inverse relationship between the level of per capita income and the


share of trade to GDP. As noted earlier however, inter-country comparisons of this


indicator are risky: some of the most rapid growth in the LDCs resulted from


booming commodity exports which had little impact on the rest of their economies.


The only thing can be stated definitively is the very strong evidence of globalization


at every developing country income level and grouping.











23


Table 12: Growth Rates in Total Trade (X+M) and Output by Income Group and Region


Annual Trade (g+s) Growth (in %) Annual GDP Growth (in %)


Country Group 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 1980-10 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 1980-10


BY INCOME LEVEL






Developed economies 7.8 5.2 7.3 6.8 8.4 3.4 5.3 5.7








Developing economies 5.4 9.4 12.0 8.9 5.0 6.5 11.6 7.7
High income developing economies 6.6 9.6 9.4 8.5 7.1 7.9 7.1 7.3
Upper middle income economies 5.4 10.1 13.4 9.6 4.9 7.0 12.7 8.1
Lower middle income economies 3.4 7.7 14.0 8.2 3.8 4.4 12.8 6.9
Low income economies 3.1 4.1 12.0 6.3 4.1 1.5 9.9 5.1
Of which: Least developed countries 2.7 5.8 14.6 7.6 4.2 1.7 12.8 6.1
Memo:








Developing econ, excl. China & India 5.2 8.7 9.9 7.9 4.8 5.7 9.4 6.6
Upper middle income, excl. China 4.8 8.2 9.7 7.6 4.6 5.1 9.7 6.5


Lower middle income, excl. India 3.0 7.2 11.5 7.2 2.7 4.8 12.4 6.6


BY REGION






World 6.5 6.2 8.8 7.2 7.1 3.9 6.9 6.0








Developing economies 5.4 9.4 12.0 8.9 5.0 6.5 11.6 7.7
Asia 10.1 10.8 12.3 11.1 7.9 7.8 12.8 9.5
Latin America & Caribbean 3.9 9.8 9.2 7.6 4.1 6.3 9.3 6.6
Europe, Middle East & North Africa 0.1 5.4 13.5 6.2 2.1 4.8 10.9 5.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.0 3.9 12.9 5.5 1.3 1.3 12.5 4.9
Memo:








BRICS 5 countries 10.6 8.6 18.2 12.4 9.8 4.3 15.7 9.8
OPEC 12 members -1.9 6.2 14.2 6.0 -0.6 5.0 12.1 5.4


Source: Computations based on World Bank World Development Indicator database.


















24



Table 13: World Total Trade (X+M) and Share in Output by Income Group


World Trade (g+s) in $ billion Output (GDP) in $ billion Total Trade as % of GDP


Country Group 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010


Developed economies 3,198 6,775 11,275 22,758 8,206 18,329 25,491 42,813 39.0 37.0 44.2 53.2











Developing economies 1,094 1,856 4,561 14,108 2,188 3,569 6,700 19,995 50.0 52.0 68.1 70.6
High income developing 401 762 1,914 4,693 365 723 1,543 3,057 110.1 105.4 124.1 153.5
Upper middle income 437 740 1,935 6,822 1,198 1,935 3,801 12,517 36.5 38.2 50.9 54.5
Lower middle income 220 307 642 2,374 542 788 1,212 4,050 40.6 39.0 53.0 58.6
Low income 35 47 70 219 83 124 144 370 41.4 37.9 48.7 59.1
Of which: LDCs 41 53 93 366 95 143 169 562 43.0 37.1 55.3 65.1











World 4,671 8,747 15,989 37,198 11,021 21,977 32,329 63,136 42.4 39.8 49.5 58.9
Memo:











Developing econ, excl.
China & India 1,024 1,702 3,905 9,998 1,809 2,886 5,026 12,380 56.6 59.0 77.7 80.8
Upper middle income,
excl. China 396 636 1,404 3,549 1,008 1,578 2,603 6,587 39.3 40.3 54.0 53.9
Lower middle income,
excl. India 192 257 516 1,537 352 461 737 2,366 54.4 55.8 70.0 65.0
BRICS 5 countries 168 459 1,043 5,563 695 1,774 2,710 11,609 24.2 25.8 38.5 47.9


Source: World Bank WDI database.




POLICY ISSUES


This strong overall trade performance—with some exceptions, for example


Sub-Saharan Africa in manufactures-- raises a lot of questions about the factors


responsible, the implications for the architecture of the trading system as well as its


sustainability.


How much of this growth was due to the developing countries own policies?


To what extent improved market access resulted from the implementation of


multilateral trade liberalization following the Uruguay Round Agreements as well as


the establishment of numerous regional preferential arrangements? Following the




25


2008 crisis, protectionism has reared its ugly head again—but much less than had


been feared (Wolf, 2011; Dadush, Ali and Odell, 2011).


To what extent does the robust developing country performance reflect the


strengthening of their capacity to export, although weaknesses in trade institutions


and infrastructure continue to be a problem in many low income developing


countries and the least developed? And what does about the impact of this growth on


poverty and income inequality?


Partly as a consequence of the strong trade performance, in the last decade the


role developing countries play in global trade relations has changed dramatically;


and they have become increasingly assertive in global trade negotiations in the


WTO. What does this mean for the future of the WTO?


Finally, to what extent are these trends sustainable? The slow-down in China’s


and India’s growth, Europe’s continued problems with the euro and US’s slow


recovery pose obvious dangers. Commodity trade booms are often followed by


busts. While protectionism has not been as bad as it has been feared, the cumulative


effect of protective measures may have an impact over time.


All these issues create obvious risks for the sustainability of the surge in


developing country trade. But we should not allow these risks to overshadow what


has been accomplished in the last thirty years. The world tomorrow will be very


different from the world of the 1980s and developing countries will play a much


more important role in the future trading system because of what they have


accomplished already.


Overall averages disguise stagnation in many countries. On the other hand, the


successful performance of many countries, several of which are low income,




26


suggests that marginalization, stagnation and poverty are not inevitable. Countries


can integrate in the world economy, grow and alleviate poverty. The key questions


have to do with the policies and institutions both in the countries themselves and in


the international environment that can support this objective; and in this context,the


role played by international trade and the WTO.






Endnotes:
1 For a description of developing county and group coverage, see Appendix A.
2 For a list of parts and component products, see Appendix B Table 3.
3 For example: countries of the former Soviet Union in the period before 1995.



























27




APPENDIX A


COUNTRY GROUPINGS


There is no formal ‘developing country’ definition in any of the major


international organizations such as the World Bank or the World Trade


Organization. The former uses for statistical purposes a per capita income grouping


which does not distinguish between developed and developing countries which is


used in part in this analysis. The WTO has no official breakdown of developed


versus developing countries. For operational purposes ‘developing’ countries use the


principle of self selection. The breakdown between developed and developing


countries used in this analysis follows roughly the breakdown used by the WTO for


statistical purposes with a few changes to be noted below.


Developed countries in our analysis include 47 countries in all of Europe


(including Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine, but not Armenia, Azerbaijan,


Georgia, or Moldova), Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, Turkey and


the US. This is pretty close to the WTO definition with the exception that South


Africa, which the WTO classifies as ‘developed’ in our case is in the developing


country group—while Turkey, classified by WTO as developing is in our analysis


with the developed—as it is applying for association with the EU. Also, Armenia,


Georgia and the Kyrgyz Republic classify themselves in the WTO as ‘transition’


economies- a category that had been used in the past but which is of doubtful


usefulness in this analysis. All three countries are classified as ‘developing’ as is


Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.




28



All remaining countries and territories are considered developing. For


merchandise trade, the analysis has data for 145 countries. 46 are in Sub-Saharan


Africa, 42 in Asia, 35 in Latin America and Caribbean, and 22 in Europe, Middle


East and North Africa. The latter region includes the five North Africa countries


(Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt) and stretches all the way East to


include Iraq and Iran (but not Afghanistan -- which is in Asia). It also includes


Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova. Far less service data are available for


developing countries. In this case our analysis includes information for 132


developing countries, 46 in Sub-Saharan Africa, 33 in Latin America and the


Caribbean, 33 in Asia, and 20 in Europe, Middle East and North Africa.


OPEC consists of 12 members as follows: Algeria, Angola, Libya, Nigeria,


Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab


Emirates.


The income level analysis uses the same definition for developed countries as


above. Developing and transition economies are then grouped into five categories


using basically the World Bank definitions of groupings and per capita income in


2012 for 192 economies/countries, except that the Least Developed countries


(LDCs) which are the 48 countries in the UN list are shown as a separate category;


Low income countries -- those with per capita income less than $1,025 (except the


LDCs); Lower Middles Income $1,026-4,035; Upper Middle Income $4,036-12,475;


and High Income $12,476 or more.


For merchandise trade sectoral breakdown data are available for 161 countries


from UN COMTRADE with 42 LDCs (6 LDCs are missing data); but information




29



for service sectors is available for 173 countries in 2010, only 46 for developed


countries and 127 for developing economies. Similarly, the low income group


includes 22 countries for merchandise trade but 32 for services. The number of


developing countries in the other groups is as follows: Lower Middle Income: 41 for


merchandise trade and 44 for services; Upper Middle Income, 34 and 37 and; High


Income, 17 and 14 respectively.




Appendix B
Appendix Table 1: Structural Changes in Sectoral Shares of Exports by Income Country Group from 1980 to 2010


Share in Total Exports (%)



Of which in Total Manufacturing


Agric. & Ores &


All Chemical Textiles & Machinery Other
Country Group Year Feed Metals Fuels Manuf. Products Clothing & Transp. Manuf.
Developed economies 1980 14.8 4.8 7.1 71.2 9.7 5.6 35.1 21.7
Developing economies 1980 15.5 4.5 53.3 20.9 1.5 6.8 5.7 7.7
High income Developing 1980 3.7 0.7 69.3 25.3 1.3 7.7 7.9 8.5
Upper Middle income 1980 28.2 7.9 29.4 22.0 2.0 3.9 3.9 7.3
Lower Middle income 1980 30.6 9.7 42.8 14.9 1.5 7.4 1.9 5.9
Low income 1980 50.9 19.4 11.3 17.9 1.3 16.9 1.8 5.6
Of which: LDCs 1980 38.3 17.2 27.1 16.8 0.9 13.8 1.2 7.1
World 1980 14.9 4.7 16.4 61.1 8.0 5.9 29.2 18.9
Memo:








Developing econ, excl China, India 1980 15.1 4.4 54.6 20.0 1.5 6.3 5.7 7.3
Upper Mid-income, excl. China 1980 28.2 7.9 29.4 21.2 2.0 3.9 3.9 7.3
Lower Mid-income, excl. India 1980 30.2 10.1 49.6 7.9 1.1 4.5 0.9 3.1

Developed economies 1990 11.8 3.4 4.3 78.2 10.1 5.3 41.8 21.5
Developing economies 1990 13.7 3.8 23.9 57.3 4.6 14.8 20.8 18.1
High income Developing 1990 5.0 1.1 20.6 72.7 4.8 16.0 29.9 22.4
Upper Middle income 1990 22.1 6.7 25.2 45.1 4.5 11.6 15.7 14.2
Lower Middle income 1990 19.4 5.5 33.8 37.6 4.3 18.2 3.4 13.8
Low income 1990 50.0 6.8 3.1 39.6 1.7 30.6 3.7 11.8
Of which: LDCs 1990 25.9 5.4 46.9 21.5 1.9 19.2 0.9 4.1
World 1990 12.2 3.5 8.6 73.6 8.9 7.4 37.2 20.7
Memo:









30



Developing econ, excl China, India 1990 13.3 4.0 26.1 55.6 4.4 13.0 21.5 17.5
Upper Mid-income, excl. China 1990 23.9 8.1 30.4 36.8 4.0 6.2 15.2 12.2
Lower Mid-income, excl. India 1990 19.4 5.4 40.9 30.3 3.6 15.7 2.5 10.3

Developed economies 2000 8.5 2.8 5.9 77.4 10.6 4.0 43.8 19.3
Developing economies 2000 8.2 2.7 19.2 68.3 5.0 10.9 36.1 16.7
High income Developing 2000 2.4 1.3 19.5 75.3 5.9 9.6 43.4 16.6
Upper Middle income 2000 11.6 3.7 15.5 67.8 4.5 10.0 35.6 17.9
Lower Middle income 2000 13.6 3.4 31.3 49.6 3.9 15.4 17.2 13.8
Low income 2000 33.2 6.9 3.6 50.6 2.2 42.6 2.0 9.2
Of which: LDCs 2000 21.5 6.3 25.9 41.7 1.8 35.4 1.9 6.1
World 2000 8.4 2.8 10.1 74.6 8.8 6.1 41.4 18.5
Memo:








Developing econ, excl China, India 2000 8.3 2.8 22.0 65.1 4.9 8.9 37.3 14.4
Upper Mid-income, excl. China 2000 13.7 4.5 20.6 59.3 4.4 5.2 36.7 13.2
Lower Mid-income, excl. India 2000 13.5 3.5 36.5 44.3 2.7 13.1 19.0 10.2

Developed economies 2010 9.4 4.4 10.7 68.9 14.0 2.8 34.0 18.4
Developing economies 2010 8.0 4.3 19.2 65.4 6.6 6.7 35.6 16.7
High income Developing 2010 1.9 1.7 24.6 65.7 8.3 3.2 39.9 14.5
Upper Middle income 2010 9.8 5.5 12.5 71.0 5.7 8.1 38.8 18.7
Lower Middle income 2010 16.0 6.3 31.3 44.4 5.9 10.5 13.8 15.0
Low income 2010 33.4 9.9 9.6 34.3 2.3 14.1 3.6 16.9
Of which: LDCs 2010 21.4 15.7 28.6 23.9 1.7 9.8 3.1 11.0
World 2010 8.8 4.3 14.2 67.5 11.0 4.4 34.6 17.7
Memo:








Developing econ, excl China, India 2010 9.7 5.2 25.8 55.0 6.8 4.0 31.5 12.9
Upper Mid-income, excl. China 2010 16.6 9.8 23.8 47.3 5.9 2.6 27.4 11.6
Lower Mid-income, excl. India 2010 18.1 5.9 36.7 37.5 4.0 9.6 13.6 10.7


Note: The classification of product groups is defined in SITC revision 2 as All goods (0 to 9), Agriculture & feed (0+1+2+4-27-28),
Ores & metals (27+28+68), fuels (3), All manufactures (5+6+7+8-68), Chemical products (5), Textiles & clothing (26+65+84),
Machinery & transport (7), Other manufactures (6+8-65-68-84).

Source: Based on UN COMTRADE Statistics.















31



Appendix Table 2: Structural Changes in Sectoral Shares of Exports by Region from 1980 to 2010



Share in Total Exports (%)



Of which in Total Manufacturing


Agric. & Ores &


All Chemical Textiles & Machinery Other
Region Year Feed Metals Fuels Manuf. Products Clothing & Transp. Manuf.


World 1980 14.9 4.7 16.4 61.1 8.0 5.9 29.2 18.9
Developing economies 1980 15.5 4.5 53.3 20.9 1.5 6.8 5.7 7.7
Asia 1980 23.3 5.6 21.6 46.8 2.4 15.2 13.8 16.1
Latin America & Caribbean 1980 44.3 13.2 27.1 15.1 3.0 5.4 3.2 6.0
Europe, Middle East & N. Africa 1980 1.8 1.1 94.9 2.2 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 1980 23.1 7.7 15.2 14.9 1.8 2.7 1.8 10.3
Memo:








BRICS 5 countries 1980 16.2 7.1 3.0 27.3 2.7 7.2 3.4 15.4
OPEC 12 members 1980 1.0 0.1 98.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3

World 1990 12.2 3.5 8.6 73.6 8.9 7.4 37.2 20.7
Developing economies 1990 13.7 3.8 23.9 57.3 4.6 14.8 20.8 18.1
Asia 1990 11.8 1.9 8.1 76.7 4.4 20.5 28.7 23.9
Latin America & Caribbean 1990 28.1 12.4 26.3 32.2 5.0 4.3 11.6 12.7
Europe, Middle East & N. Africa 1990 4.3 2.1 77.9 15.4 5.8 4.9 2.3 2.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 1990 17.9 3.5 69.7 8.6 1.1 5.3 1.1 2.9
Memo:








BRICS 5 countries 1990 20.9 6.0 5.8 65.6 6.2 22.0 16.1 22.9
OPEC 12 members 1990 2.7 2.0 86.7 8.3 3.4 0.9 1.6 2.5

World 2000 8.4 2.8 10.1 74.6 8.8 6.1 41.4 18.5
Developing economies 2000 8.2 2.7 19.2 68.3 5.0 10.9 36.1 16.7
Asia 2000 6.1 1.7 5.4 85.7 5.5 14.4 45.3 20.7
Latin America & Caribbean 2000 17.4 6.3 17.3 57.1 4.7 4.7 34.8 13.2
Europe, Middle East & N. Africa 2000 3.0 1.5 81.1 12.3 3.4 3.9 2.5 2.7
Sub-Saharan Africa 2000 17.2 6.2 42.9 27.3 3.4 4.8 6.3 14.3
Memo:








BRICS 5 countries 2000 9.5 5.0 13.7 67.9 5.9 14.2 23.5 24.5
OPEC 12 members 2000 2.0 0.9 89.6 7.2 2.7 1.1 1.4 2.0

World 2010 8.8 4.3 14.2 67.5 11.0 4.4 34.6 17.7
Developing economies 2010 8.0 4.3 19.2 65.4 6.6 6.7 35.6 16.7
Asia 2010 5.9 2.3 6.7 83.5 7.3 9.0 46.4 21.0
Latin America & Caribbean 2010 20.6 13.2 20.3 43.0 5.4 2.3 25.4 10.1
Europe, Middle East & N. Africa 2010 3.6 1.6 67.3 17.7 5.8 2.0 4.6 5.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 2010 14.9 15.0 42.3 23.5 3.1 2.0 7.9 11.4




32



Memo:








BRICS 5 countries 2010 6.7 4.9 14.2 72.1 5.8 9.8 35.4 21.4
OPEC 12 members 2010 2.7 0.9 74.7 12.9 4.3 0.6 3.4 4.6


Note: The classification of product groups is defined in SITC revision 2 as All goods (0 to 9), Agriculture & feed (0+1+2+4-27-28),
Ores & metals (27+28+68), fuels (3), All manufactures (5+6+7+8-68), Chemical products (5), Textiles & clothing (26+65+84),
Machinery & transport (7), Other manufactures (6+8-65-68-84).



Source: Based on UN COMTRADE Statistics.






Appendix Table 3: Products of Parts and Components


SITC Product of Parts and Components (75) in Rev. 2
65 Textile yarn, fabrics & made-up materials
6112 Leather fiber composition
691 Parts of structure in iron and steel
69733 Parts of cooking and heating apparatus
69911 Locks and parts
6992 Chain and parts
69971 Anchors and parts
7119 Parts of boilers and auxiliary plants
7129 Parts of steam power units
71319 Parts of aircraft internal comb engines
7132 Internal combustion engines for vehicles
7133 Internal combustion engines for marine
7139 Parts of internal combustion engines
7149 Parts of other engines and motors
7169 Parts of rotating electric motors
71889 Parts of water and hydraulic motors
72119 Parts of cultivating equipment
72129 Parts of harvesting machinery
72139 Parts of dairy machinery
72198 Parts of wine making machinery
72199 Parts of other agricultural machinery
7239 Parts of construction machinery
72449 Parts of spinning and extruding machinery
72469 Parts & loom and knitting machinery
72479 Parts of textile machinery
7259 Parts of paper making machinery
72689 Parts of book binding machinery
7269 Parts of printing & typesetting machinery
72719 Parts of grain milling machinery
72729 Parts of the food processing machinery
72819 Parts of machine tools for special industry
72839 Parts of mineral working machinery
72849 Parts of machines for other special industry
7369 Parts of machine tools for metal industry




33



73719 Parts of foundry equipment
73729 Parts of rolling mills
74149 Parts of refrigerating equipment
7429 Parts of the pumps for liquids
7439 Parts of centrifuges and filters
74419 Parts of fork lift trucks
7449 Parts of lifting and loading machinery
74519 Parts of power hand tools
74523 Parts of packing machinery
7499 Parts of other non-electric machinery
759 Parts of office and adding machinery
764 Parts of telecommunication equipment
77129 Parts of other electric power machinery
772 Parts of switchgear
77579 Parts of domestic electrical equipment
77589 Parts of electrothermic appliances
776 Parts of electronic components
77819 Parts of electronic accumulators
77829 Parts of electric lamps and bulbs
7783 Internal electric equipment for automotives
77889 Parts of other electrical machinery
784 Parts & motor vehicles and accessories
625 Rubber tyres for wheels
78539 Parts of carriages and cycles
78689 Parts of trailers and non-motor vehicles
79199 Parts of railway vehicles and equipment
7929 Parts of aircraft
81242 Parts of lighting fittings and base metals
82119 Parts of chairs and seats
82122 Mattress supports and cushion for furniture
82199 Parts of other furniture materials
87429 Parts of measuring and drawing machines
8749 Parts of instruments and accessories
88119 Parts of still cameras and apparatus
88121 Parts of cameras under 16mm
88129 Parts of other cameras under/over 16mm
88411 Parts of un-mounted optical elements
88514 Watch cases and parts
88529 Parts of clocks and watches
8989 Parts of musical instrument & accessories
89949 Parts of umbrellas and cans


Note: Parts and components items are defined as those products with official description of
"Parts of ….." and other noble components in SITC revision 2, including textiles and
clothing (65+61), machinery and transport equipment (7), metal manufacturing (69),
and other miscellaneous manufactured goods (8). See details in the papers – Aminian, N.,
KC Fung, and F. Ng (2009) and Fung, KC, I. Korhonen, K. Li, and F. Ng (2009).


Source: Based on UN COMTRADE Statistics.







34



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