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Identifying Asian LDCs’ High Potential Export Sectors

Report by ITC, 2013

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This report aims at identifying at least two sectors that show a high potential for exports in several Asian LDCs vis-à-vis China and vis-à-vis developing countries in Asia in general. Expanding exports by targeting dynamic markets is critical for future development and poverty alleviation in many developing countries and, yet, Asian Least Developed Countries (LDCs) like many other LDCs remain marginal players in the global economy and need technical assistance to fully grasp the benefits from international trade. Governments seek to complement general (“horizontal”) policies that improve the overall business environment by more targeted, sector-specific policies. Identifying sectors on which to put priority is necessary for a sound allocation of limited public resources. Governments, donors and other stakeholders want to make an informed decision on which priority sectors to select, and thus need to assess the export potential of individual sectors. As important as knowing what to export is the question where to export. Given the stagnating demand in many developed economies, emerging regional markets, first and foremost China, may offer export opportunities to Asian LDCs that are yet to be explored.




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH
POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


STUDY FOR THE PROJECT
“ENHANCING EXPORT
CAPACITIES OF ASIAN LDCS”




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


ii




The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the
expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Trade Centre concerning the legal
status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its
frontiers or boundaries.


This document has not formally been edited by the International Trade Centre.





IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


iii


Contents


1. Background ........................................................................................................................................... 1


2. Trade context ........................................................................................................................................ 1


2.1. Asian LDCs’ current export pattern ............................................................................................. 1


2.2. Trade policy framework ............................................................................................................... 4


3. Identification of high potential export sectors in Asian LDCs ................................................................ 6


3.1. Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 6


3.2. Results ........................................................................................................................................ 7


3.2.1. Sector and product selection ......................................................................................... 7


3.2.2. Future development prospects .................................................................................... 15


4. Discussion ........................................................................................................................................... 17




Annexes


I. Country groups and additional descriptive statistics 18


II. Additional EPI results 23






Tables and figures


Table 1: Overview of Asian LDCs’ trade relations to China 1
Table 2: Product selection for exports to developing Asia 8
Table 3: Product selection for exports to China 9
Table 4: Trade and tariffs for the selected textile products for exports to China 12
Table 5: Trade and tariffs for the selected fruits, vegetable, and nuts products for exports to China 14
Table 6: Summary of product selection 17


Figure 1: Share of Asian markets in Asian LDCs’ total exports 2
Figure 2: Asian LDCs’ exports by sector and market 3
Figure 3: Trade Agreements in Asia-Pacific 5
Figure 4: Degree of sophistication of the selected products 16





IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


1


1. Background


Expanding exports by targeting dynamic markets is critical for future development and poverty alleviation in
many developing countries. Yet, Asian Least Developed Countries (LDCs) like many other LDCs remain
marginal players in the global economy and need technical assistance to fully grasp the benefits from
international trade. Governments seek to complement general (“horizontal”) policies that improve the
overall business environment by more targeted, sector-specific policies. Identifying sectors on which to put
priority is necessary for a sound allocation of limited public resources. Governments, donors and other
stakeholders want to make an informed decision on which priority sectors to select, and thus need to
assess the export potential of individual sectors. As important as knowing what to export is the question
where to export. Given the stagnating demand in many developed economies, emerging regional markets,
first and foremost China, may offer export opportunities to Asian LDCs that are yet to be explored.


This report aims at identifying at least two sectors that show a high potential for exports in several Asian
LDCs


1
vis-à-vis China and vis-à-vis developing countries in Asia in general. After revising the countries’


existing export patterns, we employ a modified version of the International Trade Centre’s (ITC) Export
Potential Assessment (EPA) methodology that combines information on export performance, import
demand and market access conditions to identify promising sectors and products.


2. Trade context


2.1. Asian LDCs’ current export pattern


Table 1 gives an overview of the seven Asian LDCs’ trade relations to China. Even though Bangladesh is
by far the biggest exporter of the seven LDCs, its trade relations with China are still at the outset. Out of all
seven Asian LDCs, Myanmar exports with US$ 1.3 billion the highest value to China. Due to its closed
borders to The Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), Bhutan’s exports to China are with a value of US$ 13
thousand still negligible and have not increased over the time frame 2001-2012. All other LDCs exported in
2012 significantly more to China than they did in 2001. Since imports from China have increased as well,
the trade balance is still highly negative.


Table 1: Overview of Asian LDCs’ trade relations to China


Country Export value in
2012 (in mio.


US$)


Annual export
growth 2001-


2012 (%)


Import value in
2012 (in mio.


US$)


Annual import
growth 2001-


2012 (%)


Trade balance in
2012 (in mio.


US$)


Afghanistan 5.11 37 464.46 35 -459.34


Bangladesh 479.13 36 7,952.15 21 -7,473.02


Bhutan 0.01 -1 15.60 23 -15.59


Cambodia 215.42 18 2,704.36 26 -2,488.94


Laos 790.89 53 931.79 29 -140.90


Myanmar 1,299.60 23 5,666.68 25 -4,367.08


Nepal 29.51 18 1,965.55 26 -1,936.04


Source: ITC calculations. Data from ITC Trade Map.


China’s importance as a market for Asian LDCs’ exports has grown overall as well (see Figure 1).
Especially for Lao People’s Democratic Republic’s and Myanmar’s exports, the Chinese market is
becoming increasingly relevant. It is Myanmar’s top import market, and ranks 2


nd
for Lao’s People


Democratic Republic after Thailand.


Beyond China, all developing Asia is a big and growing market for most Asian LDCs. Five LDCs – Bhutan,
Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Afghanistan and Nepal – sell more than half of their total



1
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar and Nepal.




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


2


exports to countries within the region.
2
The small landlocked country of Bhutan currently sells almost 95%


of its exports to Asian developing countries, most notably to India. Cambodia and Bangladesh are
exceptional cases: specialized in the production of apparel, their main markets are still found in Europe
and North America. Nevertheless, all LDCs have seen their exports to developing Asian countries growing
in the range of 2% annually since 2003 for Nepal to 29% for Cambodia. The importance of the regional
market has grown as well – nearly 80% of Lao People’s Democratic Republic’s total foreign sales went in
2012 to other developing Asian markets, up from only 52% in 2001.


Figure 1: Share of Asian markets in Asian LDCs’ total exports






Source: ITC calculations. Data from ITC Trade Map.


The two pie charts in Figure 2 describe the overall sector pattern of Asian LDCs’ exports to developing
countries in Asia in general and to China in particular. Exports of mineral products dominate the LDCs’



2
Please refer to Annex 1 for a list of all countries belonging to developing Asia.


0%


10%


20%


30%


40%


50%


60%


70%


80%


90%


100%


2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


All developing Asia (incl. China)


Afghanistan


Bangladesh


Bhutan


Myanmar


Cambodia


Lao People's Democratic
Republic


Nepal


0%


5%


10%


15%


20%


25%


30%


2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


China


Afghanistan


Bangladesh


Bhutan


Myanmar


Cambodia


Lao People's Democratic
Republic


Nepal




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


3


total exports to both markets, and have experienced a rise since 2001 by 12 and 18 percentage points
(pp), respectively. “Plastics and rubber”, “Textiles and textile articles” and “Precious stones and metals”
and “Metals” are other increasingly important export sectors, particularly in trade with China. The wood
sector, by contrast, has experienced strongly declining exports to both markets over the analysed
timeframe.


Even though the sector graphs give a first impression about the importance and performance of various
export sectors overall, the seven LDCs show in reality very distinct specialization patterns. The pie charts
in Figures 3 and 4 in Annex 1 underline this. Only in Myanmar, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, and to
a lesser extent in Afghanistan mineral products account for a significant share of total exports to Asian
markets. And even within the minerals sector, the exported products differ a lot: Myanmar exports
Petroleum gases mainly to Thailand, Lao People’s Democratic Republic exports electrical energy also to
Thailand whereas Afghanistan’s mineral product exports mainly consist of coal exports to Pakistan. To
China, Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Myanmar export, in turn, only ores. Textile and textile
articles are important notably in Bangladesh’s exports, even though the country mostly exports apparel to
markets outside Asia. In Cambodia, where apparel accounts for almost half of the country’s total exports, it
only accounts for 21% of the country’s exports to developing Asia. The cotton sector (here subsumed
under “Textiles and textile articles”) occupies a reasonable share in Afghanistan’s exports. In addition,
“Metals” appears as a growing sector in which a number of LDCs are active. And finally, “Fruits, vegetables
and nuts” exports are significant for some Asian LDCs, in particular, for Afghanistan, Myanmar, Cambodia
and Nepal. However, over the period 2001-2012, the export performance of these countries to developing
Asia has been rather heterogeneous. Wood, which still occupies an important share of Asian LDCs’
exports particularly to China, is in general a declining sector and does therefore not appear to have a high
future export potential.


Figure 2: Asian LDCs’ exports by sector and market




Source: ITC calculations. Data from ITC Trade Map.


The sector analyses thus identify “Mineral products”, “Textile and textile articles”, “Fruits, vegetables, and
nuts” and “Metals” as strong sectors in Asian LDCs’ exports to China and to developing Asia in general. So
far, we have, however, only looked at export performances and discarded other factors that could influence
the different products’ export potential to the selected Asian markets. Demand and market access
conditions could also be major determinants which need to be taken into consideration when identifying
priority sectors.


Animal
agriculture
2%, -3pp


Fruits
vegetables


nuts
12%, -2pp


Mineral
products


39%,
+12pp


Plastics
and rubber
4%, +2pp


Wood
12%, -8pp


Textile
10%, +1pp


Precious
stones and


metals
6%, +5pp Metals


8%, +4pp


Rest
7%, -
1pp


All developing Asia (incl. China)
Animal


agriculture
4%, -1pp


Fruits
vegetables


nuts
7%, -3pp


Mineral
products


24%,
+18pp


Plastics
and rubber
9%, +6pp


Wood
20%, -
41pp


Textile
15%,
+13pp


Precious
stones and


metals
10%, +9pp


Metals
5%, +5pp


Rest
5%, -1pp


China




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


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2.2. Trade policy framework


Several regional trade agreements coexist in Asia and partially overlap each other (see Figure 3 for an
overview). Myanmar, Cambodia, and Lao People’s Democratic Republic are members of the Association
of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal benefit from
preferences granted under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) agreement and the three latter
countries obtain preferential access also under the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and
Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) agreement. Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Bangladesh are
furthermore members to the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA).


3


These agreements sometimes entail preferential treatment also on the Chinese market. As ASEAN
members, Myanmar, Cambodia and Lao People’s Democratic Republic benefit from substantial tariff
reductions negotiated under the China-ASEAN agreement. Even though the newer ASEAN members
followed a slower tariff reduction schedule than the founding members, China eliminated tariffs on 7,881
product categories (90% of all tariff lines) to the three LDCs on 1


st
January 2010. Tariffs on sensitive


products will be reduced by 2015.


Bangladesh and Lao People’s Democratic Republic also benefit from tariff preferences granted in the
context of APTA. China offers preferential margins on 1,697 tariff lines of up to 100%. In 2011, 9.6% of all
tariff lines were duty-free and China’s average applied tariff to other members of the agreement amounted
to 8.9%. Under both agreements, average applied tariffs to agricultural products are slightly above tariffs
applied to manufacturing products.


Finally, since July 2010, China grants unilateral preferences to 40 LDCs, amongst which Afghanistan and
Nepal as well as the other Asian LDCs with the exception of Bhutan. 4,788 and thus 60% of all tariff lines
enter the Chinese market currently free of duty. In the context of the Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration,
China promised, however, to increase the coverage of products eligible for zero tariffs to 97% of tariff
lines.


4


Bhutan is therefore the only of the seven Asian LDCs whose exports to China are subject to non-
preferential general tariff rates.


5
China applies a general tariff rate that is significantly above the most


favoured nation tariff scheme applied to WTO members: for agricultural and non-agricultural products, the
simple average of the general rates amounted in 2011 to 68% and 55%, respectively.


6



3
www.bilaterals.org. Other bilateral agreements between some of the seven LDCs and individual Asian developing countries exist as


well. Their analysis goes, however, beyond the scope of this study.
4
United Nations Support Measures Portal for LDCs, http://esango.un.org/ldcportal/web/guest.


5
Preferential tariffs are granted only to LDCs engaged in diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China.


6
WTO (2012): Trade Policy Review China.




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


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Figure 3: Trade Agreements in Asia-Pacific




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


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3. Identification of high potential export sectors in Asian LDCs


3.1. Methodology


The identification of priority sectors and products of Asian LDCs’ exports to China and to developing Asia
in general is based upon the ITC EPA methodology. Normally, EPAs are two-step analyses of the
identification of high potential export products in a first step and then, for each high performing export
product, the identification of attractive markets in a second step. For this project, we deviate from the
standard approach since the aim is to simultaneously identify sectors and LDCs that have the capacities to
develop exports in these sectors. The related questions are thus:


 Which are the high potential sectors in Asian LDCs’ exports to China and to other Asian markets?


 Which of the seven LDCs show good prospects to develop exports in these sectors?


We have adapted the standard methodology in various ways. In particular, we combine information on
export performance, market demand and market access conditions to calculate a single index that helps
selecting priority sectors that “work” for at least some of the seven Asian LDCs.


Export performance is thereby measured by three sub-indicators:


 Comparative advantage: calculated as the share of the product in total national exports as
compared to the share of this product in world exports, the indicator shows in which products the
country is competitive compared with other countries in the world.


 Growth of comparative advantage: calculated as the annual growth of comparative advantage over
the last five years, the indicator shows in which products the country has recently become
competitive.


 Trade balance: calculated as the share of the trade balance for each product in the country’s total
trade, the indicator controls for re-exports and thus focuses on products that are produced in the
country.


Market demand is also measured by three sub-indicators:


 Size (in value terms) of the market for each product


 Growth of market demand for each product: calculated as the annual growth of the market’s
imports over the last five years, the indicator shows which products have recently experienced an
increase in demand.


 Tariff preferences: the tariff preference granted to each LDC by the market (as compared to other
suppliers) is compared to the average tariff preference that this LDC enjoys when it exports to the
world (as compared to other suppliers). This indicates if a market is particularly more attractive
than others due to specific tariff preferences for a given product. Tariff preferences are computed
at the HS 6-digit level and then aggregated to the HS 4-digit level.


Calculations of the export potential rankings are made at the 4-digit level of the Harmonized System (HS)
classification. This level of detail seems fine enough to account for differences in applied tariffs that may
prevail within a sector and aggregated enough to overcome statistical issues related to changing product
codes across different HS revisions.


To better reflect potential supply constraints in Asian LDCs, we give double weight to the export
performance index when combining it with the market demand index. As a result, we obtain seven
augmented Export Potential Indices (EPIs) that allow us to identify the most promising products for each
country. Since the objective is, however, to identify sectors and products that are eligible for a number of
Asian LDCs, we combine the seven country rankings into a single ranking using a simple average of
inverse percentiles. Using percentiles instead of actual ranks allows controlling for the fact that the number
of exported products may differ across countries (e.g. between Bangladesh and Bhutan). To give an
example, for a country with 100 ranked products the 5


th
product will be in the 5


th
percentile. In a country


with 400 products however, the 20
th
product would also be in the 5


th
percentile, thus products at different


ranks in the individual rankings may be given the same importance in the composite ranking to account for
the fact that the number of exported products differs by country.




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


7


As the aim is to identify broad sectors, we will further aggregate the composite HS 4-level product ranking
to 21 broader sections. The determination of the final groups will be based on a filling algorithm which will
allow us to select simultaneously the best broad product groups and the best individual products inside
each product group.


3.2. Results


3.2.1. Sector and product selection


The composite cross-country EPI indicates that products falling into the sectors of “Textile and textile
articles” and “Fruits, vegetables, and nuts” have overall the highest potential for Asian LDCs’ export
development to developing Asia and to China.


The bubble graphs in Annex 2 show for each LDC and each market individually the export performance
and import demand along with the tariff advantages for all products. Black circled products have been
selected based on the composite cross-country EPI that combines indicators from both dimensions and
from all seven LDCs. The higher the product’s score in terms of export performance and market demand,
the more likely it will also rank high in terms of the EPI, and the more likely it becomes one of the selected
products. The graphs show that the selection reflects well Bangladesh’s good performance in textile
exports, but it reflects less well Bhutan’s high potential products. Note that it is not the size of the country
that drives this result, but the simple fact that Bangladesh’s specialization pattern is better aligned with
those of other LDCs. Hence, promising products for Bangladesh are also promising products for other
LDCs.


In the following, the results for each selected sector, as presented in Tables 2 and 3, are discussed
individually. The tables list all products that have been selected based on average percentile ranks across
the seven countries. The score variable gives the sum of the percentile ranks across all LDCs. It ranges
from 0 (if the product is not ranked in any country) to 7 (if the product is in the top percentile in all
countries). The crosses indicate that the country currently exports the respective product. Bold crosses
additionally suggest that the product ranks among the top 10% of products in terms of the country’s
individual EPIs. If a cross is framed, exports to developing Asian countries (Table 2) or to China (Table 3)
already took place in at least four out of the past five years.


Textiles and textile articles


Besides a considerable existing export volume, which translates into a comparative advantage for some
LDCs, textile and textile articles’ exports also benefit from favourable market access conditions since most
Asian markets offer larger tariff preferences than markets outside Asia do.


A first look at Tables 2 and 3 immediately shows that the EPI results reflect well Bangladesh’s and
Cambodia’s specialization patterns. Both countries are traditional exporters of textile products, and indeed,
many of the selected products rank among the top 10% of products with the highest export potential in
these two countries. Bangladesh and Cambodia, but also Myanmar, Lao People’s Democratic Republic
and Nepal export most listed products already to developing Asian countries, but as the comparison with
Table 3 shows not necessarily to China. Afghanistan and Bhutan export only few of the selected products,
often to markets outside Asia. None of the products are among Bhutan’s export products with the highest
potential, and only two of these products rank high in terms of Afghanistan’s EPI.


Some products are still highly promising for a number of LDCs. In exports towards developing Asia


 Men's and women’s “suits, jackets, trousers, dresses and shorts etc.” (HS 6203 and HS 6204),


 “Men’s shirts” (HS 6205),


 “Knitted or crocheted women’s overcoats, capes etc. (HS 6102) and


 “Track suits, ski suits, swimwear and other garments” (HS 6211)


belong to the top 10% of products with the highest export potential in at least four out of seven LDCs (as
indicated by the bold crosses in Table 2).




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


8


Table 2: Product selection for exports to developing Asia


sector code Description
Afghani-


stan
Bangla-


desh Bhutan Myanmar
Cambo-


dia Laos Nepal score


T
e


x
ti


le
s


a
n


d
t


e
x


ti
le


a
r


ti
c


le
s




6214 Shawls, scarves, mufflers, mantillas, etc X X X X X X X 5.0


6205 Men's shirts X X X X X X 4.7


6210 Garment made up of fabric of heading no 56.02,56.03,59.03,59.06/59.07 X X X X X X 4.6


6104 Women's suits,dresses,skirt etc&short, knit/croch X X X X X X 4.6


6204 Women's suits, jackets,dresses skirts etc&shorts X X X X X X 4.6


6101 Men's overcoats,capes,etc, knitted/crochetd,o/t of hd 61.03 X X X X X 4.6


6102 Women's overcoat,cape, etc,knitted/crochetd,o/t of hd 61.04 X X X X X 4.5


6203 Men's suits, jackets, trousers etc & shorts X X X X X X 4.5


6211 Track suits, ski suits and swimwear; other garments X X X X X X 4.5


6206 Women's blouses & shirts X X X X X X 4.4


6110 Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, etc, knitted or crocheted X X X X X X 4.3


6114 Garments, knitted or crocheted, nes X X X X X X 4.3


6201 Men's overcoats, capes, windjackets etc o/t those of hd 62.03 X X X X X X 4.3


6109 T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knitted or crocheted X X X X X X X 4.3


6202 Women's overcoats,capes,wind-jackets etc o/t those of hd 62.04 X X X X X X 4.1


6112 Track suits, ski suits and swimwear, knitted or crocheted X X X X X 4.1


6103 Men's suits,jackets,trousers etc&shorts, knit/croch X X X X X 4.1


6209 Babies' garments and clothing accessories X X X X X 4.1


6106 Women's blouses & shirts, knitted or crocheted X X X X X 4.1


6111 Babies' garments, knitted or crocheted X X X X X 4.0


6307 Made up articles nes, including dress patterns X X X X X X X 4.0


6105 Men's shirts, knitted or crocheted X X X X X 4.0


6305 Sacks and bags of a kind used for the packing of goods X X X X X 4.0


6310 Rags,scrap twine,crodage,rope X X X X X 4.0


6108 Women's slips,panties,pyjamas, bathrobes etc, knitted/crocheted X X X X X 4.0


6107 Men's underpants,pyjamas,bathrobes etc,knit/croch X X X X X 4.0


6208 Women's singlets, slips, briefs, pyjamas, bathrobes etc X X X X X 3.7


6302 Bed, table, toilet and kitchen linens X X X X X X 3.7


6207 Men's singlets, briefs, pyjamas, bathrobes etc X X X X X 3.6


6212 Brassieres,girdles,corsets,braces,suspenders etc&parts X X X X X 3.6


6113 Garment,made up of knitted/crochetd fabric of hd no 59.03,06,07 X X X X 3.5


6301 Blankets and travelling rugs X X X X X X 3.5


5701 Carpets and other textile floor covering knotted X X X X X 3.4


6309 Worn clothing and articles X X X X X X 3.4


6117 Clothing access nes,knitted/croch X X X X X X 3.3


6116 Gloves, mittens and mitts, knitted or crocheted X X X X X 3.2


6115 Panty hose, tights, stockings & other hosiery, knitted or crocheted X X X X X 3.2


5806 Nar woven fabrics,o/t those of hd 5807 X X X X X X 3.1


6217 Clothing accessories nes; o/t of hd 62.12 X X X X X X 3.0


F
r


u
it


s
,


v
e


g
e


ta
b


le
s


,


a
n


d
n


u
ts


1211 Medicinal plants X X X X X X X 6.2


1207 Oil seeds X X X X X X 4.8


0910 Ginger,saffron,turmeric, thyme, bay leaves & curry X X X X X X 4.6


0713 Dried vegetables, shelled X X X X X X 4.5


1401 Vegetable material for plaiting X X X X X X 4.4




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


9


1404 Vegetable products, nes X X X X X 4.4


1202 Ground-nuts, not roasted X X X X X 4.3


1212 Locust beans X X X X X 4.2


0714 Manioc, arrowroot salem (yams) etc X X X X 3.7


0709 Vegetables nes, fresh or chilled X X X X X X X 3.7


0810 Fruits nes, fresh X X X X X X 3.6


1301 Lac; natural gums, resins, gum-resins & balsams X X X X X 3.6


1006 Rice X X X X X X 3.3


0712 Dried vegetables X X X X X X 3.3


0802 Nuts nes X X X X 3.2


0804 Dates, figs,pineapples, mangoes, avocadoes, guavas X X X X X 3.2


0901 Coffee X X X X X X 3.2


1008 Buckwheat, millet and canary seed X X X X 3.1


0813 Dried fruit X X X X 3.1


0902 Tea X X X X 3.0


0801 Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts X X X X 3.0


1108 Starches; inulin X X X X 2.9


0807 Melons (including watermelons) & papayas, fresh X X X X 2.9


Source: ITC calculations. Data from ITC Trade Map and Market Access Map.
Note: The crosses indicate that the country consistently exports the respective product (in at least four out of the five last years). Framed crosses indicate that the country has exported the product to
developing Asian countries in at least four out of the past five years. Bold crosses indicate that the product is among the top 10% of products with the highest export potential for the country.


Table 3: Product selection for exports to China


sector code Description
Afghani-


stan
Bangla-


desh Bhutan Myanmar
Cambo-


dia Laos Nepal score


T
e


x
ti


le
s


a
n


d
t


e
x


ti
le


a
r


ti
c


le
s




6210 Garment made up of fabric of heading no 56.02,56.03,59.03,59.06/59.07 X X X X X X 4.9


6214 Shawls, scarves, mufflers, mantillas, etc X X X X X X X 4.8


6205 Men's shirts X X X X X X 4.7


6203 Men's suits, jackets, trousers etc & shorts X X X X X X 4.7


6109 T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knitted or crocheted X X X X X X X 4.7


6211 Track suits, ski suits and swimwear; other garments X X X X X X 4.7


6204 Women's suits, jackets,dresses skirts etc&shorts X X X X X X 4.6


6206 Women's blouses & shirts X X X X X X 4.5


6101 Men's overcoats,capes,etc, knitted/crochetd,o/t of hd 61.03 X X X X X 4.5


6114 Garments, knitted or crocheted, nes X X X X X X 4.5


6102 Women's overcoat,cape, etc,knitted/crochetd,o/t of hd 61.04 X X X X X 4.4


6209 Babies' garments and clothing accessories X X X X X 4.3


6202 Women's overcoats,capes,wind-jackets etc o/t those of hd 62.04 X X X X X X 4.3


6201 Men's overcoats, capes, windjackets etc o/t those of hd 62.03 X X X X X X 4.3


6111 Babies' garments, knitted or crocheted X X X X X 4.2


6310 Rags,scrap twine,crodage,rope X X X X X 4.2


6104 Women's suits,dresses,skirt etc&short, knit/croch X X X X X X 4.1


6110 Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, etc, knitted or crocheted X X X X X X 4.1


6106 Women's blouses & shirts, knitted or crocheted X X X X X 4.1


6112 Track suits, ski suits and swimwear, knitted or crocheted X X X X X 4.0


5701 Carpets and other textile floor covering knotted X X X X X 4.0


6105 Men's shirts, knitted or crocheted X X X X X 4.0




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


10


6307 Made up articles nes, including dress patterns X X X X X X X 4.0


6305 Sacks and bags of a kind used for the packing of goods X X X X X 4.0


6108 Women's slips,panties,pyjamas, bathrobes etc, knitted/crocheted X X X X X 3.9


6103 Men's suits,jackets,trousers etc&shorts, knit/croch X X X X X 3.9


6207 Men's singlets, briefs, pyjamas, bathrobes etc X X X X X X 3.8


6107 Men's underpants,pyjamas,bathrobes etc,knit/croch X X X X X 3.8


6208 Women's singlets, slips, briefs, pyjamas, bathrobes etc X X X X X 3.8


6302 Bed, table, toilet and kitchen linens X X X X X X 3.5


6212 Brassieres,girdles,corsets,braces,suspenders etc&parts X X X X X 3.5


6113 Garment,made up of knitted/crochetd fabric of hd no 59.03,06,07 X X X X 3.4
6116 Gloves, mittens and mitts, knitted or crocheted X X X X X 3.2


F
r


u
it


s
,


v
e


g
e


ta
b


le
s


,
a


n
d




n
u


ts


1211 Medicinal plants X X X X X X X 6.2


1207 Oil seeds X X X X X X 5.0


0910 Ginger,saffron,turmeric, thyme, bay leaves & curry X X X X X X 5.0


0713 Dried vegetables, shelled X X X X X X 4.6


1404 Vegetable products, nes X X X X X 4.5


1401 Vegetable material for plaiting X X X X X X 4.4


1212 Locust beans X X X X X 4.3


1202 Ground-nuts, not roasted X X X X X 4.0


1006 Rice X X X X X X 3.9


0714 Manioc, arrowroot salem (yams) etc X X X X 3.8


1301 Lac; natural gums, resins, gum-resins & balsams X X X X X 3.6


0810 Fruits nes, fresh X X X X X X 3.4


0802 Nuts nes X X X X 3.2


0902 Tea X X X X 3.2


1005 Maize (corn) X X X X 3.2


Source: ITC calculations. Data from ITC Trade Map and Market Access Map.
Note: The crosses indicate that the country consistently exports the respective product (in at least four out of the five last years). Framed crosses indicate that the country has exported the product to
China in at least four out of the past five years. Bold crosses indicate that the product is among the top 10% of products with the highest export potential for the country.







IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


11


In exports towards China


 “Men's suits, jackets, trousers, and shorts etc.” (HS 6203),


 “Men’s shirts” (HS 6205),


 “Track suits, ski suits, swimwear and other garments” (HS 6211) and


 “Garments made of fabrics” (HS 6210)


fulfil this criterion (as indicated by the bold crosses in Table 3). In both target markets, Bangladesh,
Myanmar and Cambodia are always among these four LDCs, Afghanistan and Bhutan never. The listed
products reach a score of at least 4.5 confirming their high export potential in many LDCs. Since some
textile products, particularly garments, are rather homogenous and can often be produced with very similar
production factors, skills and equipment, other varieties may be considered as well. Fibres and fabrics,
such as cotton, do not rank high among potential export products in the textile and textile articles sector.
Only carpets show some potential for Afghanistan and Nepal.


Table 4 summarizes trade and tariff information of each listed product for exports to the Chinese market.
Only Bangladesh, Cambodia and Myanmar significantly exported the selected products in 2012. The Lao
People’s Democratic Republic shows few exports in Men’s shirts and even less in Men’s suits. The tariffs
China applies to exports from Afghanistan, Nepal and notably Bhutan are high and could be one of the
reasons why these countries have not explored the Chinese market yet despite existing exports (compare
Table 3). The negative trade balances furthermore indicate that Afghanistan and to a lesser extent also
Nepal import in fact some of the textile articles from China – a source competition that could be hard to
tackle.




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


12


Table 4: Trade and tariffs for the selected textile products for exports to China


Sector/Product Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Laos Myanmar Nepal


Textiles and textiles
articles


Exports (in 1,000 US $) 2,460 290,665 0 100,629 1,034 21,955 7,911


Trade Balance (in 1,000 US $) -50,748 -3,436,364 -1,751 -1,277,997 -24,028 -675,335 -1,310,209


6203: Men's suits,
jackets, trousers, and
shorts etc.



Exports (in 1,000 US $) 0 32,010 0 15,454 42 895 10


Trade Balance (in 1,000 US $) -4,034 31,878 0 14,843 -12 392 -39,765


Applied tariff 16.4% 11.0% 102.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.4%


6205: Men’s shirts



Exports (in 1,000 US $) 0 8,664 0 3,746 279 324 0


Trade Balance (in 1,000 US $) 0 8,664 0 3,746 275 140 -1,078


Applied tariff 16.0% 5.6% 94.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0%


6210: Garments made of
fabrics



Exports (in 1,000 US $) 0 5,003 0 305 0 823 0


Trade Balance (in 1,000 US $) -22 4,739 0 274 -107 747 -321


Applied tariff 16.1% 0.6% 102.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1%


6211: Track suits, ski
suits, swimwear and
other garments



Exports (in 1,000 US $) 0 1,154 0 423 0 208 0


Trade Balance (in 1,000 US $) -417 323 -8 380 -132 38 -36,341


Applied tariff 16.8% 13.5% 115.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.8%


Source: ITC calculations. Data from ITC Trade Map and Market Access Map.
Note: Trade data is from 2012, tariff data from 2011.





IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


13


Fruits, vegetables, and nuts


China’s and developing Asia’s strong and growing demand of some seeds, vegetables and nuts implies a
potential for Asian LDCs’ exports in the sector. Market access conditions are generally, however, more
restrictive, both in terms of tariff and in terms of non-tariff measures.


Nevertheless have a number of countries managed to overcome these trade obstacles and exported fruits,
vegetables, and nuts to developing Asia and to China in the past. Especially Myanmar and Lao People’s
Democratic Republic have already successfully sold their produces on the Chinese market.


Regarding the developing Asian market in general, four out of seven LDCs have a high export potential in


 “Medicinal plants” (HS 1211)


and at least three LDCs have a high potential in


 “Oil seeds” (HS 1207) and


 “Locust beans” (HS 1212).


All these products rank among the top 10% of high potential export products in Afghanistan and in Lao
People’s Democratic Republic. Regarding the Chinese market, in particular,


 “Manioc, arrowroot salem (yams) etc.” (HS 0714)


is a promising export product in four out of seven LDCs, and


 “Medicinal plants” (HS 1211),


 “Oil seeds” (HS 1207),


 “Locust beans” (HS 1212) and


 “Other vegetables” (HS 1404)


are among the products with the highest potential in at least three LDCs. Afghanistan, Myanmar and Lao
People’s Democratic Republic have a high export potential for most of these products but also Nepal and
even Bhutan seem to have some prospects for successful exports in particular in medicinal plants. In fact,
all LDCs have a high export potential in at least one of the listed products. This shows that the fruits,
vegetables, and nuts sector is generally more heterogeneous than the textile and textile articles sector and
may require product-specific export promotion activities.


Table 5 gives an overview of trade in and tariffs applied to each listed product by China. Fostered by duty-
free entry conditions into the Chinese market, Myanmar and Lao People’s Democratic Republic show
significant exports in most of the selected goods. Nepal and Afghanistan export mainly medicinal plants to
China for which these two countries also have a high export potential (compare Table 3). Cambodia
managed to export in 2012 for the first time a significant amount of manioc to China. High tariffs applied to
Bhutan and for some products also to Afghanistan and Nepal may make it difficult for these countries to
develop exports to China, even though the trade balances indicate that competition from China is rather
limited in the selected products.




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


14


Table 5: Trade and tariffs for the selected fruits, vegetable, and nuts products for exports to China


Sector/Product Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia Laos Myanmar Nepal


Fruits, vegetables, and
nuts


Exports (in 1,000 US $) 1,968 3,888 0 10,706 36,460 127,255 8,508


Trade Balance (in 1,000 US $) -568 -149,159 -284 -1,450 31,805 103,554 -31,330


0714: Manioc, arrowroot
salem (yams) etc.




Exports (in 1,000 US $) 0 0 0 5,343 482 1,187 0


Trade Balance (in 1,000 US $) 0 0 0 5,343 482 1,187 0


Applied tariff 8.6% 7.8% 46.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6%


1207: Oil seeds Exports (in 1,000 US $) 0 3,871 0 0 177 14,720 0


Trade Balance (in 1,000 US $) 0 3,196 0 0 135 14,720 0


Applied tariff 8.3% 8.0% 43.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2%


1211: Medicinal plants Exports (in 1,000 US $) 1,966 0 0 0 8 2,023 8,397


Trade Balance (in 1,000 US $) 1,966 -302 0 0 8 2,023 8,278


Applied tariff 6.3% 3.6% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3%


1212: Locust beans Exports (in 1,000 US $) 0 0 0 95 9,805 42,586 0


Trade Balance (in 1,000 US $) -53 -1 0 -422 9,805 42,585 0


Applied tariff 18.3% 14.0% 73.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 18.3%


1404: Other vegetables Exports (in 1,000 US $) 0 0 0 0 185 5 10


Trade Balance (in 1,000 US $) 0 0 0 0 185 5 10


Applied tariff 7.6% 7.4% 46.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6%


Source: ITC calculations. Data from ITC Trade Map and Market Access Map.
Note: Trade data is from 2012, tariff data from 2011.





IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


15


3.2.2. Future development prospects


Our analysis has so far taken into account supply and demand including market access conditions. The
selected products may, however, entail very different prospects for future economic development that go
beyond these dimensions. For example, countries may desire to focus their efforts on products that are
associated with relatively high per-capita incomes. The associated income is calculated as the average
per-capita GDP of all exporting countries weighted by their revealed comparative advantages in that
product. A product thus implies a relatively high per-capita income if many wealthy countries produce and
export it with a comparative advantage. The associated income may also be interpreted as a measure of
product sophistication.


7


Figure 4 shows the per-capita income level that is associated with each of the products selected for
exporting to China. Textile products tend to be linked to higher GDP per-capita levels than fruits,
vegetables and nuts. Garments made of fabrics (HS 6210) even reach an average associated income of
US$ 17,162 which is a multiple of Asian LDCs’ current levels. The other products with a high EPI score
(among the top 10%) in at least four LDCs have lower associated per-capita GDPs of US$ 5,000 (Men's
suits, jackets, trousers, and shorts etc.) to US$ 6,400 (Track suits, ski suits, swimwear and other
garments). In the fruits, vegetables and nuts sector, the vast majority of products imply an average per-
capita GDP of below US$ 4,000. Out of the products that have a high export potential in at least three
countries, only manioc, arrowroot salem (yams) etc. (HS 0714) and medicinal plants (HS 1211) are linked
to more elevated incomes. Nevertheless, compared to the countries’ actual GDP per-capita levels, efforts
to export (more of) the selected products could still be conducive to the countries’ future economic
development. Only Bhutan’s per-capita GDP is with around US$ 2,400 currently above the level associated
with a few of the selected products.





7
Hausmann et al. (2007): What you export matters, Journal of Economic Growth 12:1-25.




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


16


Figure 4: Degree of sophistication of the selected products




Source: ITC calculations. Data from ITC Trade Map and from World Bank.


0 4000 8000 12000 16000 20000


Garment made up of fabric of heading no…


Fruits nes, fresh


Garment,made up of knitted/crochetd fabric…


Made up articles nes, including dress patterns


Brassieres,girdles,corsets,braces,suspender…


Men's underpants,pyjamas,bathrobes…


Women's suits, jackets,dresses skirts…


Maize (corn)


Men's overcoats, capes, windjackets etc o/t…


Men's overcoats,capes,etc,…


Women's blouses & shirts


Women's overcoats,capes,wind-jackets etc…


Nuts nes


Bed, table, toilet and kitchen linens


Track suits, ski suits and swimwear, knitted…


Garments, knitted or crocheted, nes


Women's blouses & shirts, knitted or crocheted


Women's overcoat,cape,…


Track suits, ski suits and swimwear; other…


Babies' garments, knitted or crocheted


Men's shirts


Women's singlets, slips, briefs, pyjamas,…


Women's slips,panties,pyjamas, bathrobes…


Men's shirts, knitted or crocheted


Women's suits,dresses,skirt etc&short,…


Men's singlets, briefs, pyjamas, bathrobes etc


Men's suits, jackets, trousers etc & shorts


Rice


Gloves, mittens and mitts, knitted or crocheted


Manioc, arrowroot salem (yams) etc


T-shirts, singlets and other vests, knitted or…


Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, etc, knitted or…


Babies' garments and clothing accessories


Rags,scrap twine,crodage,rope


Sacks and bags of a kind used for the…


Medicinal plants


Ginger,saffron,turmeric, thyme, bay leaves &…


Locust beans


Shawls, scarves, mufflers, mantillas, etc


Men's suits,jackets,trousers etc&shorts,…


Vegetable material for plaiting


Vegetable products, nes


Dried vegetables, shelled


Ground-nuts, not roasted


Tea


Lac; natural gums, resins, gum-resins &…


Carpets and other textile floor covering knotted


Oil seeds


Textile


Fruits vegetables nuts




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


17


4. Discussion


This study aimed at identifying export sectors and products that have good potential for exports to China
and to developing Asia for at least some of the seven Asian LDCs under analysis. Based on an augmented
Export Potential Assessment methodology, we have selected two sectors and 49 (57) products with good
prospects of export success in the Chinese (developing Asian) market. Not all of these products ranked
high in the individual countries’ EPIs and only some have previously been exported to the two markets of
interest. In summary, the following products seem to offer the best perspectives:


Table 6: Summary of product selection


Countries Sector Code Product China Developing
Asia


Score Score


B
a


n
g


la
d


e
s


h
,


M
y


a
n


m
a


r
,


C
a


m
b


o
d


ia
(


L
a


o
s


,


N
e


p
a


l)


T
e


x
ti


le
s


a
n


d
t


e
x


ti
le




a
r


ti
c


le
s




6102 Knitted or crocheted women’s overcoats, capes
etc.


4.5


6203 Men’s suits, jackets, trousers, and shorts etc. 4.7 4.5


6204 Women’s suits, jackets, dresses, and shorts
etc.


4.6


6205 Men’s shirts 4.7 4.7


6210 Garments made of fabric 4.9


6211 Track suits, ski suits, swimwear and other
garments


4.7 4.5


(A
ll


)


F
r


u
it


s
,


v
e


g
e


ta
b


le
s




a
n


d
n


u
ts




0714 Manioc, arrowroot salem (yams) etc. 3.8


1207 Oil seeds 5.0 4.8


1211 Medicinal plants 6.2 6.2


1212 Locust beans 4.3 4.2


1404 Other vegetables 4.5


Note: the brackets indicate that the countries have a high potential for at least one but not for all of the selected products and
markets.


The two selected sectors – textiles and textile articles and fruits, vegetables and nuts – are very distinct.
From the perspective of supply capacities, the textiles and textile articles sector is relatively homogenous
and therefore, the selection of products could easily be expanded. Especially Bangladesh and Cambodia
show a high export potential also in a number of other apparel products which may eventually be included
in export promotion programs. The fruits, vegetables and nuts sector, by contrast, is heterogeneous and
while for example Afghanistan, Myanmar and Lao People’s Democratic Republic have a high potential for
exporting oil seeds and locust beans to China, Nepal and Bhutan may rather want to focus on medicinal
plants’ exports. Designing an appropriate sector strategy will require taking into account these differences.


The products offer also very different economic development perspectives. The associated average per-
capita GDP levels range from to US$ 1,400 for oil seeds to US$ 17,162 for fabric-made garments. This is
important information if the objective is to specialize on more sophisticated goods that allow the country to
gain more from its exports.







IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


18


Annex I: country groups and additional descriptive statistics


LDC country group


Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Myanmar
Cambodia
Lao People’s Democratic Republic
Nepal


Developing Asia country group


Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Bhutan
Brunei Darussalam
Myanmar
Cambodia
Sri Lanka
China
Hong Kong, China
Indonesia
Democratic People's Republic of Korea
Lao People's Democratic Republic
Macao, China
Malaysia
Maldives
Chinese Taipei
Mongolia
Nepal
Pakistan
Philippines
Timor-Leste
India
Singapore
Viet Nam
Thailand




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


19


Figure 1: Asian LDCs' exports to developing Asia (incl. China) by sector and exporting
country






Fruits
vegetables


nuts
39%, -
28pp


Mineral
products


19%,
+14pp


Textile
22%, -1pp


Metals
15%,
+14pp


Rest
4%, +1pp


Afghanistan


Animal
agriculture
6%, -6pp


Fruits
vegetables


nuts
4%, +4pp


Foodstuffs
2%, +2pp


Mineral
products


8%,
+5pp


Chemistry
3%, +0pp


Plastics
and rubber
3%, +3pp


Raw hides
and skins
9%, -21pp


Textile
53%,
+19pp


Metals
4%, +4pp


Machinery
and


electronica
l


equipment
3%, +3pp


Rest
5%, +1pp


Bangladesh


Chemistry
13%, -
25pp


Wood
3%, -13pp


Metals
80%,
+44pp


Rest
3%, -3pp


Bhutan


Animal
agriculture
3%, -2pp


Fruits
vegetables


nuts
14%, -6pp


Mineral
products


55%,
+11pp Plastics


and rubber
3%, +2pp


Wood
17%, -5pp


Precious
stones and


metals
4%, +4pp


Rest
4%, -2pp


Myanmar




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


20






Fruits
vegetables


nuts
12%, +9pp


Mineral
products
6%, +6pp


Plastics
and rubber
9%, -5pp


Wood
3%, -29pp


Textile
21%


Footwear
headgear
umbrellas
3%, +2pp


Precious
stones and


metals
33%,
+26pp


Metals
5%,
+3pp


Machinery
and


electronica
l


equipment
4%, +2pp


Rest
4%, +0pp


Cambodia Fruits
vegetables


nuts
5%, +0pp


Mineral
products


47%,
+42pp


Plastics
and rubber
2%, +2pp


Wood
14%, -
52pp


Metals
28%,
+28pp


Rest
4%, +0pp


Laos


Fruits
vegetables


nuts
15%,
+11pp


Foodstuffs
15%,
+11pp


Mineral
products
3%, +2pp


Chemistry
10%, -
11pp Plastics


and rubber
12%, +8pp


Textile
11%, -5pp


Footwear
headgear
umbrellas
4%, +4pp


Metals
22%, +4pp


Rest
7%,
+1pp


Nepal




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


21


Figure 2: Asian LDCs' exports to China by sector and exporting country






Fruits
vegetables


nuts
38%,
+35pp


Textile
48%, -
23pp


Precious
stones and


metals
5%, +5pp


Instrument
s and


apparatus
4%, +4pp


Rest
5%, +3pp


Afghanistan


Animal
agriculture
10%, +6pp


Mineral
products
5%, +5pp


Plastics
and rubber
8%, +8pp


Raw hides
and skins
9%, -68pp


Textile
61%,
+46pp


Instrument
s and


apparatus
3%, +0pp


Rest
4%, +2pp


Bangladesh


Metals
33%,
+33pp


Machinery
and


electronica
l


equipment
67%,
+67pp


Bhutan Animal
agriculture


5%
Fruits


vegetables
nuts


10%, -2pp


Mineral
products


22%,
+13pp


Plastics
and rubber
9%, +9pp


Wood
24%, -
43pp


Precious
stones and


metals
23%,
+20pp


Metals
2%, +2pp


Instrument
s and


apparatus
3%, +3pp


Rest
3%, +1pp


Myanmar




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


22






Animal
agriculture
4%, +0pp


Fruits
vegetables


nuts
5%, +4pp


Plastics
and rubber
19%, +3pp


Wood
13%, -
64pp


Textile
47%,
+45pp


Footwear
headgear
umbrellas
5%, +5pp


Metals
4%, +4pp


Machinery
and


electronica
l


equipment
2%, +2pp


Rest
1%, -2pp


Cambodia


Fruits
vegetables


nuts
5%, -17pp


Mineral
products


46%,
+46pp


Plastics
and rubber
7%, +3pp


Wood
30%, -
39pp


Metals
12%,
+12pp


Rest
1%, -1pp


Laos


Fruits
vegetables


nuts
29%, +7pp


Raw hides
and skins
11%, +7pp


Wood
5%, +5pp


Textile
27%,
+22pp


Metals
24%,
+19pp


Rest
4%, +1pp


Nepal




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


23


Annex II: additional EPI results


Figure 3: Export Potential Indices via-à-vis China




10


20


30


40


50


60


70


80


20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


C
h


in
a


D
e


m
a


n
d


I
n


d
e


x


Export Performance Index


Afghanistan


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


24




10


20


30


40


50


60


70


80


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


C
h


in
a


D
e


m
a


n
d


I
n


d
e


x


Export Performance Index


Bangladesh


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage


20


30


40


50


60


70


80


90


20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90


C
h


in
a


D
e


m
a


n
d


I
n


d
e


x


Export Performance Index


Bhutan


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


25


10


20


30


40


50


60


70


80


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


C
h


in
a


D
e


m
a


n
d


I
n


d
e


x


Export Performance Index


Myanmar


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage


10


20


30


40


50


60


70


10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


C
h


in
a


D
e


m
a


n
d


I
n


d
e


x


Export Performance Index


Cambodia


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


26




Source: ITC calculations. Data from ITC Trade Map and Market Access Map.
Note: the bubble size reflects the country’s total exports of the product. Selected products are black circled.


10


20


30


40


50


60


70


10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


C
h


in
a


D
e


m
a


n
d


I
n


d
e


x


Export Performance Index


Lao's People's Democratic Republic


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage


10


20


30


40


50


60


70


80


20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


C
h


in
a


D
e


m
a


n
d


I
n


d
e


x


Export Performance Index


Nepal


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


27


Figure 4: Export Potential Indices vis-à-vis developing Asia




40


50


60


70


80


90


20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


D
e


v
e


lo
p


in
g


A
s


ia
D


e
m


a
n


d
I


n
d


e
x




Export Performance Index


Afghanistan


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage


20


30


40


50


60


70


80


90


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


D
e


v
e


lo
p


in
g


A
s


ia
D


e
m


a
n


d
I


n
d


e
x




Export Performance Index


Bangladesh


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


28






30


35


40


45


50


55


60


65


70


75


80


20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90


D
e


v
e


lo
p


in
g


A
s


ia
D


e
m


a
n


d
I


n
d


e
x




Export Performance Index


Bhutan


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage


10


20


30


40


50


60


70


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


D
e


v
e


lo
p


in
g


A
s


ia
D


e
m


a
n


d
I


n
d


e
x




Export Performance Index


Myanmar


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


29






0


10


20


30


40


50


60


70


80


10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


D
e


v
e


lo
p


in
g


A
s


ia
D


e
m


a
n


d
I


n
d


e
x




Export Performance Index


Cambodia


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage


10


20


30


40


50


60


70


80


20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


D
e


v
e


lo
p


in
g


A
s


ia
D


e
m


a
n


d
I


n
d


e
x




Export Performance Index


Lao's People's Democratic Republic


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage




IDENTIFYING ASIAN LDCS’ HIGH POTENTIAL EXPORT SECTORS


30




Source: ITC calculations. Data from ITC Trade Map and Market Access Map.
Note: the bubble size reflects the country’s total exports of the product. Selected products are black circled.






20


30


40


50


60


70


80


30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


D
e


v
e


lo
p


in
g


A
s


ia
D


e
m


a
n


d
I


n
d


e
x




Export Performance Index


Nepal


Low tariff advantage Medium tariff advantage High tariff advantage




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